Saturday, November 8, 2008

Pena Wins First Gold Glove; MLB Salary Arbitration Explained and more...

First of all, 9=8.com wants to extend a congrats to Carlos Pena for winning his first (and a Rays franchise first) Gold Glove for his defensive play at first base. Not only did Carlos lead all first basemen with only 2 errors all year, but he made a meaningful number of very tough plays during the regular season. As we saw this year and last, Carlos is one of the best first basemen in all of MLB (offensively and defensively) and has emerged as a leader for the Rays.

Evan Longoria and Joe Maddon look poised to collect some well-deserved hardware next week as well, so stay tuned!

On another note, there has been a lot of talk about what's going on with the Rays, salary arbitration, trade talks, etc. I am working on another post to talk about the Rays needs and potential deals (for free agents as well as trade rumors/ideas), but I'll save that for another day. Today, I wanted to share some details on salary arbitration as it can get a bit confusing. The Rays have the following players elgible for salary arbitration and this will definitely raise the payroll for the 2009 Rays with their 2008 salary noted (hopefully not to the point where they can't get the everyday RF or closer that they need):
  • Grant Balfour ($500,000);
  • Edwin Jackson ($412,700);
  • Dioner Navarro ($412,500);
  • Willy Aybar ($401,200);
  • Jason Bartlett ($416,600);
  • Jonny Gomes ($1,275,000); and
  • Gabe Gross ($414,000)
The Rays will need to address these players through arbitration assuming they wish to keep them for 2009. Of those on the list above, it's very possible that the Rays let Jonny Gomes go on his way (or at least offer him much less than his $1,250,000 salary). Other notable salary relief the Rays will get include the following players who might not return in 2009 (or, if they do, they will likely earn less than in 2008): Rocco Baldelli ($2,250,000), Cliff Floyd ($2,750,000), and Trevor Miller ($1,600,000). Also, Troy Percival ($3,897,797) will be done after 2009 when his contract expires, so the Rays know they will have that money rolling off next year. There are lots of things to consider this off-season (per this article in the St. Pete Times yesterday). Will the Rays trade BJ Upton? Will they trade Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine? Maybe Scott Kazmir? Lots of crazy rumors have been flying around, so check back for my post on possible trades the Rays could make or free agents they could sign. In the mean time, here's the breif education on Salary Arbitration in MLB.

Salary Arbitration (from Wikipedia)
If a player is drafted and is offered a contract by his drafting team (or any team he is traded to) each year, he may not become a free agent until he has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least six years. Otherwise, any player without a contract may become a free agent and sign with any team.

A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

  • is ineligible for free agency
  • is without a contract
  • cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
    has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years
"Super Two" exception - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:
  • Meets the first three requirements from above
  • Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
  • Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience
  • In this process, the player and the team both submit a salary offer for a new contract; the arbitrator chooses one number or the other, whichever is thought to be most "fair" given comparable wages among players with similar ability and service time. Players thus rely on arbitration and free agency to increase their salaries.
Players eligible for neither free agency nor salary arbitration are very seldom offered contracts for much more than the league minimum salary, as the player has no recourse to try to obtain a better salary elsewhere. For this reason, in the first three major league years of their careers, players accept comparatively low salaries even when their performance is stellar. This is an accepted practice; talented, young players are usually content to "pay their dues" in this way and earn a chance to negotiate for more in their fourth year. Occasionally, a team may wish to sign a player in his second or third year to a long-term contract, for which negotiation can take place for a much higher salary.

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Sunday, September 28, 2008

9=8.com's Tampa Bay Rays 2008 ALDS Roster Projections

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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:

Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist

Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine

Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price

Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.

2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).

That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

WOW: Believe in the Tampa Bay Rays - a Season of Destiny?

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First it was Carl Crawford (our #3 hitter), the defensive stalwart and key member of the Rays offensive attack. No problem, we have Rocco Baldelli, Ben Zobrist, Eric Hinske, Justin Ruggianno, Gabe Gross, Dan Johnson...

Then, it was Evan Longoria (our #4 hitter and team leader in HR, RBIs and Slugging %). No problem, we have Willy Aybar.

Then, it was BJ Upton (our #2 hitter and team leader in walks, OBP as well as the AL leader in outfield assists), who has been playing with a torn Labrum in his left shoulder, who strained his quad chasing a ball on Monday at Fenway Park (in the biggest series the Rays have had in FRANCHISE HISTORY). He misses Tuesday and Wednesday's games. No problem, we have Fernando Perez, Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Gabe Gross, etc.

Then, it was Troy Percival. Troy has been hurt for months now and doesn't seem to be getting any better (despite what he is telling Maddon and the trainers). No problem, we have Dan Wheeler, and...JASON "the Hammer" HAMMEL!

The Rays just continue to find ways to win. Anchored by the #1 starting pitching staff in the AL and maybe the majors (sorry, Blue Jays, the Rays are the best) and the #1 bullpen in the AL and probably the Majors (if we had a closer), the cast of characters that have scored runs for this team seems to change every night.

Tuesday, it was Dan Johnson, who, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, after hitting a game-tying HR in the top of the 9th inning Tuesday night after being recalled from Triple-A, became the first player in the last 50 years to hit a September home run in the 9th inning (or later) in his first at-bat for a first-place team. I was listening to Boston Sports Radio during the game and the commentators couldn't even figure out who it was that tied the game! Then, it was Fernando Perez who, despite having some serious challenges hitting from the left side of the plate, smokes a near home run off of the Green Monster for a double. Navarro drove him in on the next at bat and Perez ended up being the winning run. Both Perez and Johnson were not even on this team a few short days ago (Perez joined on 9/1).

Last night, Carlos Pena came through with a CLUTCH home run in the 14th inning. Perhaps this was the least surprising hitter to do so as he's the only guy left standing in the heart of the Rays order. But, even this was not routine as Carlos hit the HR to the OPPOSITE FIELD! If you follow the Rays, you know that many teams play "the Shift" against Carlos because he always pulls the ball. Opposite field homer in the 14th inning?

Finally, our mop-up reliever, Jason Hammel, came into the game with bases loaded and nobody out. He promptly notched his FIRST CAREER SAVE with a strong showing against the heart of the Red Sox order (Kevin Youkilis - an AL MVP contender, Jason "should have been a Ray" Bay and Alex Cora). He threw some nasty pitches to "Not a Ray" Bay (first Red Sox player to go 0-for-7 in nearly 10 years) and stayed strong against Youk and Cora. JASON HAMMEL, Rays fans!!!

The only conclusions I can draw from these dramatic events of Tuesday and Wednesday (not to mention a bunch of other amazing comebacks, walkoffs and leaping, game-saving catches (Gabe Gross, Justin Ruggianno, BJ Upton, etc.) are the following:

1) This team has incredible heart. After starting September slow and hearing all the pundits say "I told you the Rays would fold..." this team picked itself up and notched the 2 biggest wins in franchise history! AND

2) This is a team of distiny. The Rays have found a way to win despite not having their #2, #3 and #4 hitters in the line-up and despite having no closer (sorry, Percy, you don't count right now). This is only possible

The Rays still have plenty of baseball left to play, but Tuesday and Wednesday may just prove to be the pivital moment in the 2008 Rays season. GO RAYS!!!

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Sunday, August 24, 2008

Rays Fans, We Have A Problem: TB on the Wrong Side of Too Many Ridiculously Bad Calls


The Rays have been on the wrong side of two very mysterious calls over the last few days (not to mention a whole host of other "close calls" that went against them throughout this year). The first incident involved a phantom turn toward second by BJ Upton on Tuesday, August 19th against the first place LA Angels. BJ Upton busted it down the line and beat out a ground ball. The umpire called BJ out when he ruled that BJ made an attempt to head towards second. Joe Maddon lost it and was thrown out of the game for arguing the call. Incidentally, the Rays came back to win the game despite this unbelievably bad call.

Tonight, the Rays headed into extra innings against the Chicago White Sox. In the bottom of the 10th, A.J. Pierzynski reached base on a single and advanced to second by tagging up on a fly ball to deep center field. On the ensuing at bat, Jermaine Dye hit a hard ground ball to shortstop Jason Bartlett who promptly got Pierzynski into a run down between 2nd and 3rd. When Aybar (playing 3B) threw the ball to Bartlett, he clearly moved to the left to get out of Pierzynski’s way, but Pierzynski threw his arm out to the side making contact with Aybar (albeit very slight contact). The umpire (Eddings), stopped play and called obstruction awarding 3B to Pierzynski. This ended up being the winning run and the Rays lost the game in the bottom of the 10th.

VIEW THE VIDEO OF THE PLAY HERE

Here is what one of the other esteemed members of the umpiring crew had to say about the call after the game:

"What Doug ruled at second base was, even though A.J. did kind of stick his arm out to make contact, Aybar was still in his way, so A.J., if he would have turned, he wouldn't have been able to continue on to third," said third-base umpire Ted Barrett, who addressed the situation after the game. "So after making the throw, Aybar is no longer in the act of fielding and he can't obstruct the runner, which is what Doug ruled happened. In a rundown, even though A.J. was going back to second, the rule of obstruction during a rundown is he gets his next advanced base and that's why he was rewarded third base."

So, a baserunner can legally “kind of stick his arm out to make contact” with a fielder and wind up being awarded a base? Are you kidding me? To make things even worse, the umpire said "if he would have turned, he would not have been able to continue to third." So, according to Mr. Barrett, baserunners can legally stick their arm out to make contact with a fielder AND they don't even need to turn around and run towards 3rd to get an obstruction call!!! Icing on the cake is that Burnett did not fully cover Eddings' back on the call (note the bolded section above). He simply says that this is what Eddings ruled and did not affirm that the ruling was correct.

Regardless of the crew's explanation above, I thought I would do a little research and here is what I found in the MLB rulebook regarding the definition of offensive interference:

INTERFERENCE
(a) Offensive interference is an act by the team at bat which interferes with,
obstructs, impedes, hinders or confuses any fielder attempting to make a play.

If the umpire declares the batter, batter-runner, or a runner out for interference,
all other runners shall return to the last base that was in the judgment of the
umpire, legally touched at the time of the interference, unless otherwise
provided by these rules.


The umpire says Aybar was not in the act of fielding, but the rule book does not say that. The rule book says “any fielder attempting to make a play.” If it weren’t bad enough that Aybar clearly would not have made contact with Pierzynski had Pierzynski not stuck his arm out, the umpire misquoted the rule book (or so it appears from one spectators chair). You can check out the rules for yourself HERE. Comments encouraged.

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Saturday, August 23, 2008

Rays September 1st Call-ups: What Moves Should the Rays Make?

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Maddon said he has met with his coaches and executive vice president Andrew Friedman about the team's September call-ups, and "we pretty much have an idea of what we'd like to do."

I took this snippet from a St. Pete Times online article and thought it would make for some interesting discussion. So, in short, what would you like to see the Rays do going into September to shore up the team for the pennant race (remember, the roster expands on September 1st)?

Here are a couple of possibilities/likelihoods:

1) Add David Price - starter or bullpen? He has looked very sharp in the minors with his smokin’ 98+ MPH fastball, among other things. He would bring a powerful lefty to the starting rotation or the bullpen (what do you think the right answer is for DP?). Of our 5 starters, 4 of them are right handed. In the bullpen, we only have 2 LHPs. So, our pitching staff is very right heavy and DP could provide a boost in this area (and this will be boosted once rosters expand on September 1st). A second LHP in the 5-man rotation could create a very tough setup for the opposition going forward (especially in the playoffs where you don't really need 5 starters). The difficulty with this decision is that the starting 5 have been SO GOOD this year and are getting better (all 5 starters have 10+ wins except our ace - he will get his today ;) ). Edwin Jackson might have been the odd man out, but he’s really heating up (5-1 in his last 6 starts giving up a total of 11 earned runs over 34 2/3 innings. Sonny is also pitching extremely well in August at 3-0 in 4 starts with an ERA of 2.92 (his no decision was actually his best outing giving up 1 earned run in 7 innings). Slotting David Price in the bullpen might be the answer, although that could disrupt what’s he’s got going on. If Troy Percival can't get healthy in September, perhaps Joe will put Balfour in the closer role and Price can assume the "strikeout" situation role that Balfour now fills (Price averages just over 1 SO per inning pitched).

2) Which other pitchers will contribute? Joe Maddon has shown a propensity to call on a lot of bullpen help in match-up fashion. Once rosters expand, it would not surprise me to see the bullpen swell quite a bit so that Joe can exact his match-up magic. It's possible that we might see some of our better talent join the team including Wade Davis, Jeff Nieman or even Mitch Talbot (who made a very brief appearance on the roster in July 2008). Who do you think deserves a slot on the roster, if anyone, and how can they contribute?


3) How much PT will Jonny Gomes get after roster expansion and will he be back? He’s got real power, but he is an all or nothing bet. Regardless, he might provide an emotional lift for the team down the stretch and could give the team a powerful right handed bat if Rocco struggles with his health. However, after starting hot in his first few games at AAA Durham, he’s only hitting .227 with 2 HR and 20 strikeouts in 16 games (ouch). I really like Jonny (he’s a super guy, the fans love him and he brings A LOT of energy to the clubhouse), but I fear he is going to be the odd man out unless he gets things going. Still, I do expect to see him rejoin the team in September.


4) Who plays right field? The reality is that the Rays are going to have some decisions to make once Carl Crawford rejoins the team. Ben Zobrist can play right field (his .250 BA, .345 OBP while only striking out 2 times is not bad), but he's unlikely to see much time with only 1 slot to fill. Willy Aybar is a utility guy, but won't get any work in Septemeber if no further injuries occur (he's got no PT in OF and the infield is spoken for when Longo gets back - it's too bad since he’s had 2 or more hits in 7 of his last 11 games and is hitting over .300 with 3 HR, 5 doubles and 9 RBIs since replacing Evan Longoria). So, it looks like right field will be split by Rocco against lefties (he’s hitting a solid .300 in August and hit his first HR last night), Hinske against righties and Gross against some righties and in defensive situations (e.g. after 7 innings if the Rays have the lead). The reality is, barring further injury, the Rays are going to have to make some decisions when Carl gets healthy, but Joe has a lot to choose from. I suspect we'll see a lot of "match-up" baseball down the stretch with the right field position.

The good news is that these are “high class” problems. The Rays have proven to have exceptional depth at pitching (with a huge potential “wild card” in David Price) and in the field/batters box. All of this depth is underscored by a team that has tremendous chemistry and strong leadership. I like where we stand and trust that Joe, Andrew and company will make the right decisions as tough as they may be.

So, tell me what you think?

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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Rays Win and Take Over MLB's Best Record: A Win to Remember

I wasn’t at the game tonight since I am out of town, but I was able to catch it on TV. WOW! I believe we are going to look back on this game and realize that it was clear statement game for our young team. This game is classic 2008 Rays. There were so many things worth noting:

1) Stellar starting pitching: James Shields had great stuff tonight pitching 8 innings giving up only 2 runs and Dan Wheeler closed it out with a strong 9th inning.

2) Great defense: not only were there no errors by the Rays, but Gabe Gross made a leaping catch up the left field wall (Web Gem #4), Jason Bartlett made a great leaping grab doubling up the runner at first and BJ Upton made a sensational throw to home plate saving a key run (can you say laser show? - Web Gem #2).

3) Very timely “hitting”: hitting is in quotes because the game was actually tied on an RBI walk to Carlos Pena (3 walks on the night). Appropriately, Willy Aybar stayed hot (the Rays fill in player for Longoria) and stepped in and drove in 2 runs with 2 outs in the 8th to seal the victory. He is now batting .364 with 3 HRs, 9 RBIs and 6 extra base hits since taking over 3rd base for the injured Evan Longoria on August 8th (11 games).

4) Finally, you had Joe Maddon aggressively back up BJ Upton when the first base umpire made one of the worst calls I’ve seen all year. Maddon was ejected and BJ now knows that his coach and team mates have his back despite the couple of rough weeks he’s been through. This year is all about TEAM and this aspect of the Rays showed up big tonight.

This game puts the Rays into first place in all of MLB and it is appropriate that it happened the way it did. Remember this game as the year nears a close. I’ll be at the game tomorrow night with my brooms. Go Rays!


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Friday, August 15, 2008

COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUT by Matt Garza: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers: August 15, 2008

Matt Garza pitched an absolute gem today with a 2-hit shutout (it should have been a 1 hitter, but the scorer was harsh on a ball that bounced off of Ruggiano's glove). He was throwing smoke early in the game (96-97 MPH) in all the right locations. The offense didn't need to do too much today, but they did deliver 4 long balls and some great hustle on the bases (especially Cliff Floyd). The only blemish on this win (6-2 on this road trip) was that Joe Maddon had to yank BJ Upton from the game for not running out a double play. It's just too bad that BJ has not gotten the message yet. Doesn't he realize that this opportunity doesn't come along everyday (just ask Carl and Johnny who've been in a Rays uniform for many years). Here is a quick and dirty summary of the game:

It's great to have Jason Bartlett back at short stop today for the first time in over a week. Mat Garza came out hot today and really found his groove in the 3rd inning with a 1 pitch pop out and 2 3-pitch strikeouts. That must have inspired Willy Aybar who hits a first pitch HOME RUN in the top of the 4th!

The Rays really opened the floodgates in the 5th inning even though Texas registered 3 strikeouts in the inning (Upton, Aybar and Riggins). Carlos Pena started things off when he smoked a slider into the right field seats for a solo HOME RUN. Cliff Floyd kept things going with a sharp line drive into the left field gap and legged out a double. Hinske then followed up with a 2-RUN BLAST to center field and Gabe Gross finished things off when he hit a FROZEN ROPE over the left field wall. So, the fifth inning featured 3 home runs and 3 strikeouts from the Rays giving them a 5-0 lead. Meanwhile, Garza continues to look very strong striking out the side in the bottom of the 5th (no hits thru 5).

Things were a little more interesting in the 6th inning when BJ Upton hit into a double play and didn't quite hustle to 1B, so Joe Maddon immediately yanked him for Justin Ruggiano. In addition, Kinsler hit a looper into center field that bounced off of Justin's glove and was ruled a hit (this probably should have been an error, in my opinion). Josh Hamilton did hit a hard single up the middle in the 7th inning, so the potential controversy from the prior inning was lessened. The Rays did add another run in the top of the 7th on the double by Cliff Floyd that scored Carlons Pena.

After a strong 8th inning from Garza and some additional insurance in the 9th inning (1 more run scored on a ground out by Eric Hinske), Garza successfully lobbied Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey to allow him to finish off the Rangers, which he did 1-2-3 (culminating in a line-drive out from Josh Hamilton).

When it was all said and done, the Rays won another road game (6-2 on this road trip) against a contender with contributions up and down the line-up. In fact, every slot in the line-up had a hit and four different guys WENT YARD. Great game Rays.

Visit ESPN for the complete box score.

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How Do the Rays Keep Winning with So Many Injuries (sorry, Hank, I am not going to whine about it)?

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How can the Rays be in the midst of a 5-2 road trip (3 more games to go) despite losing their #3 (Carl Crawford) and #4 (Evan Longoria) hitters, who were both getting hot right before their injuries (Carl and Evan accounted for a whopping 25% of the team's RBIs for 2008!!!)?

The answer lies in players like Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar and Rocco Baldelli. Since being recalled on August 5th, Ben Zobrist has a hit in 8 of 9 games played (he's hitting .272 during this stretch - not huge, but respectable) and has an on base percentage of .400 (that's strong for a #9 rookie hitter). Additionally, he's had some clutch hits such as his double in Oakland that proved to be the winning run. For a rookie who doesn't know whether to unpacl his suitcase or not, this is a major contribution to a team at a critical time.

Another great story is Willy Aybar, who has also hit .272 during the same stretch (filling in for Evan Longoria). Not only has he played a very solid 3B having committed 0 fielding errors and turned a healthy number of key double plays, he also had hist first 2 homerun game (August 10th at Seattle) and drove in 2 key runs on August 14th (Rays won the game by 1 run).

Finally, the return of Rocco Baldelli has been an emotional lift for this team. Rocco has been working with the Rays training team for months trying to deal with his medical condition and his return is a true testament to his tenacity and strong will. He has also made a huge impact in the field running down two awesome diving catches in right field (including the #1 ESPN Web Gem on August 14th). Rocco's ability to deal with this adversity demonstrates the heart and character of this team, which is the clear reason they continue to win. Oh, and let's not forget great pitching - giving up about 3.5 runs on this road trip.

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