Scott Kazmir IS key to 2009 (and he's improving)

A recent game preview article on MLB.com stated that Scott Kazmir "could be" key to the Rays this year. I am willing to take this one step further and state that he IS ABSOLUTELY key to the Rays success in 2009.

In looking at the Rays rotation, Garza and Shields are legitimate "stoppers" and should continue to be strong starters for the remainder of the year. Niemann has been a very pleasant surprise, but it's not a sure thing that he will remain as consistent as he's been (hey, he's a rookie). Price has been anything but consistent girating from one strong start to the next lousy one. IF the Rays are to make it to the playoffs this year and have any success in the playoffs, they need three solid, consistent starters with intermitant strong performances from their #4 and #5 guys. This is why Kazmir is so important. In addition to the fact that Kazmir is one of the highest paid players on the Rays roster $6 million in 2009), which hamstrings the club's ability to pay up for additional pitching, Kazmir has shown that he can still be a dominant pitcher in this league. We already know that Sonnanstine is far from a sure bet. After a very good 2008 season, he's regressed to the point where we really can't count on him. Other options in Triple-A are also far from a sure thing, although one never knows (Wade Davis and Carlos Hernandez are both pitching VERY well for the Bulls).

So, if Kazmir can become a consistent 4.00 ERA starter (or better) and can pitch into or through the 6th inning on a consistent basis, I really like the Rays chances of making a run at the AL East title given their prolific (at least up until lately) offense and strong defense (at least it should be strong, on paper - I tend to think that the offense will moderate a little bit in the second half, but the defense should also revert back to the mean thereby offsetting each other in large part). But, without Kazmir at or better than this level, it's going to be a much more difficult road to hoe because we've seen how streaky the offense can be.

Tampa Bay Rays finding their MoJo?

OK – so I was a game early with my last piece, but I can honestly say I saw the Rays making some good progress towards RaysBall. I'm even seeing some serious energy and excitment in the dugout for the first time in a while. Lots of creative handshake/fist/body bumps, etc. That's the sign that this team is starting to get into it a bit. There is no substitution for good MoJo.

I like what I am seeing from the Rays:

Rays batters are really grinding down the opposing pitchers. In the last 5 games, the Rays have forced the opposing team to through 153, 140, 146, 198, and 142. That’s over 17 pitches per average inning. The Rays are really working the count well and are grinding out at-bats. While this may not always lead to runs, this type of play is the hallmark of a good team. The hits will come if the Rays keep grinding out at-bats like they have been.

Starters are getting it done (even on off nights). Even after Kazmir’s tough night (he was off, but he also got some really tough breaks), the Rays starters are looking better by the game. Garza’s performance goes without saying…a TRUE GEM. Sonny didn’t want to come out and look silly after what Garza did the night before. So, he took the mound and put in a gutty performance. Yeah, he got into some trouble, but never big trouble (didn’t give up the long ball with guys on base). Most innings seemed to go out-hit/walk-out-hit/walk-out. And, that’s OK if you don’t give up extra bases, which he did not. Sonny wasn’t sharp, but the sign of a good pitcher is being able to win when you are having an off night. Sonny did just that (with the help of some stellar defense as well) and let’s hope this builds his confidence and gets him going.

Bullpen is rounding into form. After starting the first 10 games of 2008 as one of the worst bullpens in the AL by ERA, they are now one of the best for the entire season (slow start included; as measured by ERA). In my last post, I wrote about the bullpen’s 3 earned runs over the last 17 innings. Well, they’ve added to that inning total by throwing another 4 2/3 innings with no earned runs. So, over the last 22 innings or so, the Rays bullpen has given up a measly 3 earned runs. That’s an ERA of 1.22 or so. Additionally, they look very sharp. [Side Bar: on paper, these guys are better than 2008. Now, they are starting to prove that to be the case].

BJ seems to be finding his swing. He’s 3-for-8 with 3 walks against the Red Sox in this series. So, his OBP is .500, he’s stealing bases and scoring some runs… and the Rays have won both games. He also looks much beter at the plate. BJ is a key part of the Rays offense because he is so disruptive to pitchers and he has a knack for scoring runs when he’s on base (note Masterson and Beckett in the last 2 games when BJ is on base). It’s no coincidence that BJ was on base against Beckett when Carl drew the walk to load the bases (before Longo broke the game open with a bases clearing double in Game 1). When BJ is hitting, he makes the bottom of the lineup better (Bartlett and Aki) as well as the guys that follow him. His average is rising as is his OBP (which is still a staggering .150 or so above his batting average). I still contend that if BJ gets it going (and things are looking promising of late), the Rays are going to win a lot of games.

The Rays building momentum now rests with Jeff Niemann. Let’s hope that Rays can string a few together on this run through the AL East.

Getting back to "Raysball"?

Last night was the first night all season where I recognized the team I’ve come to love. No there wasn’t an explosion of home runs (at least HRs that mattered, sorry Carlos and JB) and there wasn’t anything fancy about the way the Rays chipped away at the Twins on offense with regular old timely base hits. The win was a combination of great starting pitching (hey, this Niemann guy sure has quieted down the “where is David Price” crowd with his stellar pitching after the first inning of his first outing), solid defense (no real blunders except the ball that Aki misplayed a bit) and a shut-down bullpen (no runs allowed). Were it not for the icing on the cake homeruns from Carlos and JB, this game, at 4-1, looked a lot like the Rays from 2008 (and that makes me very happy).

I’ve also noticed a couple of very positive trends:

1) the bullpen is really starting to come around - after a rough start, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has given up only 3 earned runs in the last 6 games over a total of 17 innings pitched (that’d be an ERA of 1.59 for those of you that are math challenged)

2) The starting pitchers are showing signs of progress. After a slow ramp up to full speed, intentionally done by Joe Maddon given the post-season run of 2008 (oh, the good old days), the Rays starting pitchers have not quite been themselves over their first few starts (you might equate these to what would normally be their last few starts of a normal spring training period).

• Shields looked a little rough in his first start against the Red Sox, came out smoking in his second start giving up only 3 hits in 7 innings, and then gave up 5 runs in his third start. Shields was anything if consistent in 2008. In his 4th start, Shields appeared to have very good control of his pitches, seems to have his velocity back up into the 92 MPH range and was mowing hitters down on his way to a 0-1 loss to Seattle.
  
• Kazmir has actually been pretty good with a few rough innings here and there (remember the 10 straight balls to begin the White Sox on 4/18…ugh). Well, he bounced back with 6 shutout innings against the A’s.
  
• Garza took a little while to get going last year, but his stuff is just plain nasty. I’ve not really seen Garza come around, but I am confident he will.
  
• Sonny has been roughed up pretty good in his first 4 starts. He’s simply not locating his pitches. But, Sonny is a feel pitcher and I’m hopeful that he’ll get the touch back soon.
  
• And, what can we say about Niemann? He has been more than we ever could have hoped for. Despite his record of 2-2, he’s kept the Rays in the game. With the exception of his first, very shaky inning, Niemann has been one of the Rays most consistent starters so far. If he can keep this up, I suspect you will see him in this rotation for a while in 2009.

3) Burrell is starting to hit and he is clearly seeing the ball better. Burrell was brought in to improve the Rays chances against lefties (especially the likes of Jon Lester, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitt). But, he’s also served as very valuable protection for Carlos Pena, who is currently leading the AL in home runs and RBIs. That’s no coincidence. When pitchers had the luxury of working the black on Carlos, he was not as potent. But, if they have to throw strikes to him, he’s going to make them pay. You could make the same argument for Longoria, who is also off to a very hot start. He's got Carl Crawform on one side and Carlos Pena on the other. Well, despite his .238 average, Burrell has an OBP of .364 for the 2009 season, AND, he’s hitting .272 over his last 10 games with an OBP of .429. Those aren’t eye-popping, but they are up significantly from the .100-something he was hitting in the first 10 games (it was so bad, I don't even want to calculate it). In addition, he’s drawn 9 walks in the last 10 games. When hitters are walking, they are hitting. Burrell is starting to come around and is likely about to break out for the Rays (that’s my prediction).

So, what am I worried about? Well, other than being in last place 12.3% into the season, I am most worried about BJ Upton. He’s been in a severe slump and it makes me wonder if his shoulder is just not quite right, yet. Maybe it would serve him well to hit #7, #8 or #9 for a couple of weeks to take some pressure off. After all, Aki and JB have been very strong in April and have both proven they are able to handle the leadoff spot. BJ is the future leadoff guy for this team and he has the potential to be a Ricky Henderson type leadoff guy (unique combination of power and speed). But, he can’t do it until he gets his head right. If BJ is not hitting, that hurts in a big way. In a lot of ways, the leadoff guy sets the tone for each game. Let’s recall BJ’s first game back against the Yankees on 4/13. He walked on 6 pitches to start the game. He then stole second AND third base! He then scored on a hit by Carlos Pena. That set the tone for a game that ended with the Rays a big winner 15-5 (BJ finished 1-3 with 3 walks, 2 SBs and 2 runs scored). BJ ate up 30 pitches in that game! For comparison’s sake, Game 2 of the Yankees series was a different story. BJ struck out swinging in his first at bat and was on his way to an 0-4 game with a hat trick (3 Ks and he only saw 16 pitches in that game). The Rays lost the game 7-2, collected a meager 3 hits and didn’t score until the 7th inning. Now, I am not blaming that loss on BJ since the bullpen was the real culprit that time, but I make the point that an impactful leadoff guy can get a team going early. BJ has the potential to shape each and every game right out of the gate.

Let’s all hope that BJ gets back into the swing of things soon (or just finds ways to get on base). We should all keep an eye on his progress. With some of the other pieces starting to come together, I strongly believe that BJ is the lynch pin that could ignite a nice run by the Rays in 2009.

Rays Look Impressive in Opening Series Against the Boston Red Sox

After dropping their Opening Day game 5-3 to the Red Sox (and a dominant Josh Beckett), the Rays answered with strong pitching performances by Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, both of whom picked up a win at Fenway. Lest we forget that it took until mid-September in 2008 for the Rays to pick up a single win on the road against the Red Sox, this was an impressive couple of wins for the Rays and a great way to kick off the 2009 season.

Key take-aways from the opening series:
1) Rays first 3 starters looked very strong. Shields was roughed up a little bit, but he never lost control of the game even though he gave up a few more than we would have liked. The Rays were still very much in Game 1 and could have tied/won the game with one or two timely hits late in the game. Kazmir's fastball was alive and well. He had some crazy movement on his consistent 92+ MPH fastball and was very much on with his change-up. We saw a few good sliders, but I hope to see more of them this year. Garza looked like he hasn't missed a beat since the ALCS. He is really tarting to come into his own. His stuff is just nasty!

2) Rays bats were alive and well after a quiet, 3-hit showing against Beckett. In total, the Rays put up 26 hits (including 13 for extra bases) and scored 14 runs. Notables include Longoria who was 6 for 14 with 2 doubles, 2 homeruns and 5 RBIs; Iwamura who was 5 for 10 with 2 doubles and 3 walks (on-base of .615). Carlos Pena had a rough start to the season going 0 for 5 with 5 Ks, but he contributed a 2-run homerun in Game 2 as well as a single and 3 BBs. His on-base is still nearly .400 even with his very weak start. Finally, Matt Joyce collected his first hit and his first homerun as a Ray in Game 3 when he launched one over the right field fence at Fenway. I like the way this kid looks a lot. As a side note, Edwin Jackson (whom the Rays traded for Matt Joyce) pitched lights out in his Detroit debut (April 7th - pitching as Detroits #2 starter) in what was probably his career best performance. He pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing only 2 hits and only 1 earned run. I hope we didn't let one get away....

3) Rays defense was a little shaky in the outfield, but got the job done. Both Kapler and Joyce had a little bit of trouble in CF. CF at Fenway is no easy task, to be fair, but the Rays will be vastly improved when BJ Upton returns to his post in CF and Joyce and Kapler can spend more time in RF.

Up next for the Rays are the very potent Baltimore Orioles offense (just ask CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang). The Rays should not take these guys lightly as they clearly have the ability to put some runs on the board quickly. I will be keen to see how Sonnanstine's new Changeup performs as well as how the back end of the Baltimore rotation holds up. While the Orioles have plenty of offensive fire power, their purported weakness is the starting rotation. Game time is 7:05PM tonight, 7:05PM tomorrow and 1:35PM on Sunday. Happy Easter!

Pena Wins First Gold Glove; MLB Salary Arbitration Explained and more...

First of all, 9=8.com wants to extend a congrats to Carlos Pena for winning his first (and a Rays franchise first) Gold Glove for his defensive play at first base. Not only did Carlos lead all first basemen with only 2 errors all year, but he made a meaningful number of very tough plays during the regular season. As we saw this year and last, Carlos is one of the best first basemen in all of MLB (offensively and defensively) and has emerged as a leader for the Rays.

Evan Longoria and Joe Maddon look poised to collect some well-deserved hardware next week as well, so stay tuned!

On another note, there has been a lot of talk about what's going on with the Rays, salary arbitration, trade talks, etc. I am working on another post to talk about the Rays needs and potential deals (for free agents as well as trade rumors/ideas), but I'll save that for another day. Today, I wanted to share some details on salary arbitration as it can get a bit confusing. The Rays have the following players elgible for salary arbitration and this will definitely raise the payroll for the 2009 Rays with their 2008 salary noted (hopefully not to the point where they can't get the everyday RF or closer that they need):

• Grant Balfour ($500,000);
• Edwin Jackson ($412,700);
• Dioner Navarro ($412,500);
• Willy Aybar ($401,200);
• Jason Bartlett ($416,600);
• Jonny Gomes ($1,275,000); and
• Gabe Gross ($414,000)

The Rays will need to address these players through arbitration assuming they wish to keep them for 2009. Of those on the list above, it's very possible that the Rays let Jonny Gomes go on his way (or at least offer him much less than his $1,250,000 salary). Other notable salary relief the Rays will get include the following players who might not return in 2009 (or, if they do, they will likely earn less than in 2008): Rocco Baldelli ($2,250,000), Cliff Floyd ($2,750,000), and Trevor Miller ($1,600,000). Also, Troy Percival ($3,897,797) will be done after 2009 when his contract expires, so the Rays know they will have that money rolling off next year. There are lots of things to consider this off-season (per this article in the St. Pete Times yesterday). Will the Rays trade BJ Upton? Will they trade Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine? Maybe Scott Kazmir? Lots of crazy rumors have been flying around, so check back for my post on possible trades the Rays could make or free agents they could sign. In the mean time, here's the breif education on Salary Arbitration in MLB.

Salary Arbitration (from Wikipedia)
If a player is drafted and is offered a contract by his drafting team (or any team he is traded to) each year, he may not become a free agent until he has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least six years. Otherwise, any player without a contract may become a free agent and sign with any team.

A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

• is ineligible for free agency
• is without a contract
• cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
  has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years

"Super Two" exception - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:

• Meets the first three requirements from above
• Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
• Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience
• In this process, the player and the team both submit a salary offer for a new contract; the arbitrator chooses one number or the other, whichever is thought to be most "fair" given comparable wages among players with similar ability and service time. Players thus rely on arbitration and free agency to increase their salaries.

Players eligible for neither free agency nor salary arbitration are very seldom offered contracts for much more than the league minimum salary, as the player has no recourse to try to obtain a better salary elsewhere. For this reason, in the first three major league years of their careers, players accept comparatively low salaries even when their performance is stellar. This is an accepted practice; talented, young players are usually content to "pay their dues" in this way and earn a chance to negotiate for more in their fourth year. Occasionally, a team may wish to sign a player in his second or third year to a long-term contract, for which negotiation can take place for a much higher salary.

Rays Magical Season Comes to an End - No 2nd Guessing Here

Well, the magical 2008 baseball season has come to an end for Rays fans. First and foremost, I want to congratulate the Rays for a great season that exceeded everyone's wildest expectations. The Rays are the 2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONS, for crying out loud (and I am crying inside, cause I selfishly wanted more). 9=8.com is not going to second guess Maddon's decision to let JP Howell hit, nor are we going to ask why Aki wasn't able to make that catch, nor are we going to second guess the saving of David Price until it was too late, nor are we going to second guess BJ Upton for swinging at the first pitch. No, we are not going to do that because that would cast a cloud on this great season.

But, I do expect to think about this loss for more than 30 minutes, sorry, Joe Maddon. There are so many "coulda" "shoulda" "woulda's" from this series that it does make my stomach churn. Not until Game 5 did we see the real Tampa Bay Rays of 2008 and even then, a costly baserunning mistake and a could of "coulda made" defensive plays were the difference in the game. Games 1-4 were full of errors, misplays and slumping hitters (no timely hitting this time around and not a lot of defense, either). Perhaps the boys were a little tight or even running low on gas after a very emotional August and September filled with many big and very tense games. We can learn from this great experience and return in 2009 with a burning hunger to get back to the big dance and win the trophy!

I can't explain what happened as I still believe the Tampa Bay Rays of 2008 had every chance to win the World Series if they'd been able to play their game. It is disappointing, but also inspiring to see this young team accomplish so much, but still fall short of the ultimate goal of every MLB team. That is now history and we must more forward.

Looking forward to 2009, the Rays are going to be a team to contend with for sure. With a starting rotation of James Shields, Scott Kazmir, David Price, Matt Garza and either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, it's hard not to get excited. Add to that mix a genuine closer through off-season dealing (or through grooming a guy like Edwin Jackson, who has closer-like stuff) and the bullpen is looking pretty stout as well. Can the Rays make a move in the offseason for a big right handed bat? Many think that it's imperative to do so and it's hard to disagree.

So, in closing (and until I have anything else interesting to say about the Rays of 2008), THANK YOU to the Tampa Bay Rays organization for a season baseball will be talking about for decades. This story is only bested by the 1969 Mets or maybe the 1991 Braves. It truly is one of the best stories in baseball in a very long time. A perennial cellar dweller wins its division (by far the hardest one in all of baseball) and goes to the World Series! Additionally, the Rays are doing things the right way. I am VERY excited about the 2009 season and can't wait for things to gear back up. Hey, pitchers and catchers report in a short 3 months, which really doesn't seem like that far away!

Fans, let's support this team. Buy up those season ticket packages (even if it's only a 20-gamer that you have to split with 2-3 friends) and get out to the Trop. Your team needs you!

GO RAYS!!!

Rays Win Game 2 of 2008 ALDS and take 2-0 Lead; 9=8.com Was There (again)! 50+ Photos

Game 2 of the ALDS was a tremendous game that included many gutty performances, clutch hitting and some great bullpen work by the Rays. Scott Kazmir, after throwing 37 pitches in the first inning (and loading the bases with 0 outs), was able to battle through his rough start to give 5 1/3 strong innings giving up only 2 runs. In doing so, he earned his first career post season win and the Rays left for Chicago with a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. 9=8.com was there and we took 50+ pics that I wanted to share with all of you Rays fans (entire slide show is embedded below)! Oh, and it was LOUD at the Trop today. Someone said it was the 3rd loudest crowd in MLB history (that's been measured) and I believe it. It's certainly the loudest one I've ever been to.

As has been typical for the Rays all season, it was a total team effort. At the plate, every Rays starter collected a hit (there were 12 hits in all for the Rays). This balanced offensive attack was complemented by strong defense (as usual). Fernando Perez made a crucial out in the 2nd inning; an out that I believe made a huge impact on Kazmir as he was looking to get things on track. That catch is not supposed to be made and only a handful of major leaguers could have made that play. Truly sensational for the rookie’s playoff debut! The trio of Crawford, Upton and Perez in the outfield has to be a big concern for MLB. Those guys are SO FAST, that it is much tougher to get hits against this alignment.

And, what can you say about our bullpen? Whether it’s JP Howell, who is probably the top middle reliever in ALL OF MLB, Grant Balfour (he shut down a 2-baserunner situation in the fifth, which was a key moment in the game) or even Chad Bradford, they were all outstanding. Chad Bradford closed things out for the Rays allowing Dan Wheeler to get some rest before Sunday’s game.

I had the pleasure of attending this game again with my father and son (3 generations). We will remember these first two games forever and are looking forward to more Rays baseball (hopefully in the ALCS, but Game 5 of the ALDS is worst case). We already have our tickets and hope to see you there. Enjoy the pictures I took below!!!

Blue Jays Starting Top 3 Pitchers vs. Red Sox on Short Rest

Some good news for the Rays (if you are into scoreboard watching, that is). The Blue Jays announced that A.J. Burnett, Jesse Litsch and Roy Halladay all will pitch on three days' rest against Boston. In addition, the Red Sox are going to have to face the hot LHP David Purcey (at least, he's hot against the Rays having given up 1 run in 16 innings against us in his last 2 starts) in their first game tonight (Wakefield is pitching for the BoSox). This is great news for the Rays for several reasons.

1) The Jays have a top 2 (Rays are #1 in my opinion) starting rotation in the MLB and the Jays are red hot - good opportunity for the Rays to gain some ground if we can take the series from the Yankees (will not be easy, but the Rays can do it for sure).

2) The Jays believe they are in the Wild Card hunt (and they are if they can win or sweep the Red Sox series) and will be playing for their lives. The Red Sox know they needs to string some wins together before coming down to the Trop. That means both sides will be playing some very intense baseball for 3 days before having to fly down and play a 3-game set at the Trop. The Red Sox will not be able to preserve their bullpen as they cannot afford to conserve for the Rays series. Let's hope for some extra innings battles in this series!

3) The Rays/Red Sox series is going to be no picnic for Red Sox hitters either as they will face Scott Kazmir right out of the gate. They also have to deal with the mental block of having lost all games they've played at the Trop thus far. I am not sure how big an issue this will be, but it is something that will be in their minds, for sure.

The Rays do not have an easy task at hand either with their visit to Yankee Stadium, but I believe we have a very good chance to win this series. Here are the Rays matchups for the weekend:

Friday - Garza vs. Ponson
Saturday - Shields vs. Mussina
Sunday - Jackson vs. Pavano

No easy task for sure, but they are all RHPs and the Rays are fired up after the Red Sox series. Perhaps we will see BJ Upton and Evan Longoria in the lineup as well, which would be outstanding news! There is going to be some GREAT baseball for the next week!