Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Getting Ready for 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Baseball: Offseason Recap

After reading through an endless number of articles on Tampa Bay Rays rumors and moves, I thought it might be a helpful primer for Rays fans to have a summary of the most important offseason happenings. So, here goes.

The Rays were very busy this offseason. After an historic run to the World Series in 2008, the Rays set their sites on fielding an even better team in 2009. Going into the offseason, the Rays clearly outlined their primary goals in this article: right field and the bullpen. Additionally, the Rays noted that they had a glut of great pitching, some of which would like need to be moved to make room for other up and comers (especially those like Niemann and Hammels who are out of minor leagues options). With the recent announcement that Chad Bradford needed elbow surgery and will be out 3-4 months as a stark reminder of the realities of MLB, pitching depth is a great asset for the Rays.

So, jumping right in to the offseason summary. First, the Rays allowed several of their 2008 players (allowed because they chose not to resign them) to become free agents including Rocco Baldelli (signed by the Red Sox), Cliff Floyd (signed by the Padres), Eric Hinske (signed by the Pirates), Trevor Miller (signed by the Cardinals) and Johnny Gomes (signed a minor league contract with the Reds). All of these players contributed to the team’s success in 2008, so they will be missed. But, all things considered, the Rays did not lose a single full-time starter in the offseason to free agency! The good news is that all of the above mentioned players were role / platoon players; the bad news is that the Rays were successful last year in large part due to the contributions of its role players. But, I digress.

The biggest news for the Rays came in the signing of Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract. Burrell, one of the big guns available to the Rays (others included Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Ken Griffey, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi, to name a few). Burrell will be the Rays full-time DH and might be able to fill-in in RF from time to time (such as when the Rays play inter-league play or when they return to the World Series…!). Burrell has been a consistent source of power for the Phillies having hit an average of about 30 home runs in each of the last 7 seasons. While I really liked Cliff Floyd, Burrell represents a significant upgrade to the Rays DH position and he is right handed (the Rays lineup is a bit left-lopsided).

There were persistent rumors that the Rays were actively shopping some of their plethora of starting pitching. This manifested itself in the dealing of Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for hot prospect, Matt Joyce. Joyce is an up and coming left-handed batting right fielder who is now under the Rays’ control for 6 years. Jackson, a 14-game winner in 2008, will be sorely missed. But, the reality of his situation is that he will make $2.2 million in 2009 (he signed a 1-year deal with the Tigers for this amount) and he was likely to be on the outside looking in for the Rays starting rotation (with David Price eventually taking over the #5 slot).

Another great, but less talked about move, was the acquisition of Joe Nelson via free agency. Nelson is a top-shelf relief pitcher who pitched 54 innings for the Marlins in 2008 posting a stellar 2.00 ERA. He is a 34-year old veteran that the Rays agreed to pay $1.3 million in a one-year deal. The interesting tidbit of news on Nelson is that he received interest from 19 MLB teams (19!!!) and he CHOSE to join the Rays. When is the last time you heard of a player choosing to join the Tampa Bay Rays when he had multiple options? It truly IS a NEW DAY IN TAMPA BAY!!

Adding to Burrell, Nelson and Joyce, the Rays also signed veteran right-fielder (and body builder extraordinaire...well, not really) Gabe Kapler to a one-year $1 million deal. Kapler hit .354 with 22 RBIs against left handed pitching in 2008. One of the biggest problems for the Rays last year was hitting left handed pitching (the World Series made this very clear). Shoring up their right handed line-up seems like a pretty good idea since the AL East now includes the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Andy Petite, Jon Lester, etc. With Burrell at DH and Kapler as a platoon option in RF against lefties, I think the Rays did just that. This also gives the Rays another option in center field if BJ Upton needs more time to get ready; Kapler started 25 games in CF last year for the Brewers.

The Rays had a few other items to address and did so over the course of early 2009. Firstly, they lost their lefty specialist (Trevor Miller). Miller was a great asset to the Rays, but it appears as though he may have some injury issues to work through in 2009 and he was expensive. So, the Rays signed side-armed lefty 40-year old veteran Brian Shouse to a two-year deal (have you noticed a trend in the bullpen – veterans?). Shouse was a strong 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 69 games for the Brewers in 2008. Lefties only hit .180 off him, with an on-base percentage of .192. He is the prototypical specialist pitcher. The Rays also signed RHP Lance Cormier to a $675,000 deal to shore things up further. Lance has something to prove as his raw stats are not among the best of the Rays pen, but he's clearly a talented pitcher with good stuff...and the price was right. Between Shouse, Nelson, Bradford (once he gets healthy), Cormier, Howell, Balfour and Wheeler (not to mention Hammels and Niemann), hitters are going to get all kinds of different looks from the Rays bullpen this year.

In another interesting part of the baseball prospect/farm system process, the Rays lost promising pitching prospect, Eddie Morlan, to the Rule 5 draft. Eddie was a solid prospect with some pretty good numbers in the Rays' farm system. The good news is that the Rays were able to pick up a pretty interesting prospect in Derek Rodriguez. Rodriguez, a right-handed relief pitcher, is 25 years old. He posted some very good numbers in 2008, when he was 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 49 appearances in double-A and triple-A. He struck out 10 batters per 9 IP and a 2.7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. He also held opponents to a .191 batting average. The catch is that the Rays must give him back and pay $50,000 if he does not make the 25-man roster in 2009. But, we've seen some pretty good fortune from guys like this (e.g. Balfour), so it's a small price to pay for a very interesting prospect.

Tying up all the other loose ends, the Rays were also busy with a number of their players that were already under Rays control, but needed new contracts. The Rays avoided arbitration by signing Jason Bartlett to a 1-year deal worth about $2 million; signing Gabe Gross to a 1-year deal worth about $1.3 million; and signing Grant Balfour to a 1-year deal worth about $1.4 million (avoiding arbitration). The Rays have also been busily negotiating with Dioner Navarro and Willy Aybar, both of whom are arbitration eligible. The Rays would like to sign Navi to a long-term deal, but that did not happen. The St. Pete Times reported earlier today that the Rays were successful in their arbitration case against Navi. Navi will earn $2.1 million in 2009. Let's hope there are no hard feelings. It is possible that the Rays come to terms with Aybar prior to his arbitration case, but that looks less likely by the day. The Rays victory against Dioner might help things along here.

Well, that's a pretty complete overview of the offseason (except for a few minor league signings). If there is anything that I missed, don't hesitate to comment. Go Rays!

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Sunday, November 9, 2008

Rays Looking for Right Fielder - Who Fits the Bill?

UPDATE - EVAN LONGORIA WINS ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - CONGRATS, LONGO!!!

Arguably the Rays biggest need is an everyday right fielder (the Rays also talked recently about wanting to shore up the bullpen and add a starter - but I think the latter is likely to include David Price). Closer is a spot that has some questiosn marks (for obvious reasons), but the Rays are a bit hamstrung there as they have Percival under contract in 2009 for $4 million and he's shown that he can still pitch effectively when he's healthy. Thus, the Rays seem unlikely to make a big bet on a top shelf closer this offseason.

A much more likely scenario is that the Rays go for a strong right fielder / right handed bat to fill their biggest need. There are a number of potential guys that fit the bill, so here goes:

1) Matt Holliday is one of the biggest names out there that might fit within the Rays organization. He's a very high quality player even though he does have better home numbers (Coors Field effect) than he does road numbers. Even so, his road number are still pretty strong (.891+ OPS vs. .997+ OPS at home) and he is a very good all around player. The Rockies need pitching and the Rays have a ton of it. So, why not trade for him? Well, he only has 1 year left on his contract and he's likely to draw BIG BUCKS in the free agent market after the 2009 season. It's possible the Rays could try to resign him before 2009, but do they really want to make a large bet on a guy who has some risk (being away from Coors Field could make him more average)? Also, what would the Rays have to give up to get him?

2) Manny Ramirez is THE single best OF hitter available. But, I am not going to spend any time on him because he's simply not a fit with the way Joe Maddon and the Rays organization run things.

3) Magglio Ordonez is a relatively new name in the trade talks. He has been a very strong everyday player for the Tigers and is under contract making $18 million in 2009 with options of $15 million for 2010 ($3 million buyout) and $15 million for 2011 (no buyout). (Side note - Ordonez's salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million). That's a lot of money for the Rays to spend on a right fielder, but Ordonez is the real deal and he has proven that he's healthy and is a premier hitter in MLB. Interestingly, his home/road splits are actally more severe than Holliday's (.771 OPS on the Road vs. .974 at home in 2008).

4) Bobby Abreu is a free agent and can still play a decent right field (very strong arm). But, he's a left handed bat and the Rays would really like to pick up a solid right handed bat in their new right fielder. Abreu also made about $16,000,000 in 2008 and he may draw something close to that number this year given his consistent bat and acceptable RF play. The big upside is that he is a free agent and won't cost the Rays any talent to acquire. The downside is that he's just not as good as the guys mentioned above.

5) Fernando Perez, Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist and Justin Ruggiano. The Rays used a platoon in 2008 in RF and they got to the World Series. Would the Rays be better off using their considerable farm talent to fill this hole instead of giving up some of their prized pitching in a trade? For example, the Rays might consider moving Upton to RF and putting Perez in center (his natural position). BJ plays a very good CF and I am not sure it'd be the best thing to move him into yet another position in 2009, but it's certainly an option. Or, they could utilize Rocco as their DH/RF and platoon him with Perez or Zobrist. Ruggiano is another contender although he went ICE COLD at the plate when he had opportunities in 2008. But, he's got some talent, no doubt about it.

So, the Rays have some thinking to do here and there appears to be only upside at the right field position in 2009. The Rays were able to get to the World Series in 2008 largely with the team that's returning in 2009. Any upgrade in the starting pitching rotation (e.g. David Price) is a big bonus as well as any upgrade in RF. Personally, baseball games are won with pitching, so I'd like to see the Rays tread carefully with their very good, young arms (esp. Sonny and Jackson). The Rays were blessed with very few pitching injuries in 2008, but you can't count on that happening every year (just as the Yankees). As for Right Field, I don't expect any sort of blockbuster deal, but I also did not expect to see the Rays ship Delmon Young out last year, so you never know!

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Saturday, November 8, 2008

Pena Wins First Gold Glove; MLB Salary Arbitration Explained and more...

First of all, 9=8.com wants to extend a congrats to Carlos Pena for winning his first (and a Rays franchise first) Gold Glove for his defensive play at first base. Not only did Carlos lead all first basemen with only 2 errors all year, but he made a meaningful number of very tough plays during the regular season. As we saw this year and last, Carlos is one of the best first basemen in all of MLB (offensively and defensively) and has emerged as a leader for the Rays.

Evan Longoria and Joe Maddon look poised to collect some well-deserved hardware next week as well, so stay tuned!

On another note, there has been a lot of talk about what's going on with the Rays, salary arbitration, trade talks, etc. I am working on another post to talk about the Rays needs and potential deals (for free agents as well as trade rumors/ideas), but I'll save that for another day. Today, I wanted to share some details on salary arbitration as it can get a bit confusing. The Rays have the following players elgible for salary arbitration and this will definitely raise the payroll for the 2009 Rays with their 2008 salary noted (hopefully not to the point where they can't get the everyday RF or closer that they need):
  • Grant Balfour ($500,000);
  • Edwin Jackson ($412,700);
  • Dioner Navarro ($412,500);
  • Willy Aybar ($401,200);
  • Jason Bartlett ($416,600);
  • Jonny Gomes ($1,275,000); and
  • Gabe Gross ($414,000)
The Rays will need to address these players through arbitration assuming they wish to keep them for 2009. Of those on the list above, it's very possible that the Rays let Jonny Gomes go on his way (or at least offer him much less than his $1,250,000 salary). Other notable salary relief the Rays will get include the following players who might not return in 2009 (or, if they do, they will likely earn less than in 2008): Rocco Baldelli ($2,250,000), Cliff Floyd ($2,750,000), and Trevor Miller ($1,600,000). Also, Troy Percival ($3,897,797) will be done after 2009 when his contract expires, so the Rays know they will have that money rolling off next year. There are lots of things to consider this off-season (per this article in the St. Pete Times yesterday). Will the Rays trade BJ Upton? Will they trade Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine? Maybe Scott Kazmir? Lots of crazy rumors have been flying around, so check back for my post on possible trades the Rays could make or free agents they could sign. In the mean time, here's the breif education on Salary Arbitration in MLB.

Salary Arbitration (from Wikipedia)
If a player is drafted and is offered a contract by his drafting team (or any team he is traded to) each year, he may not become a free agent until he has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least six years. Otherwise, any player without a contract may become a free agent and sign with any team.

A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

  • is ineligible for free agency
  • is without a contract
  • cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
    has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years
"Super Two" exception - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:
  • Meets the first three requirements from above
  • Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
  • Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience
  • In this process, the player and the team both submit a salary offer for a new contract; the arbitrator chooses one number or the other, whichever is thought to be most "fair" given comparable wages among players with similar ability and service time. Players thus rely on arbitration and free agency to increase their salaries.
Players eligible for neither free agency nor salary arbitration are very seldom offered contracts for much more than the league minimum salary, as the player has no recourse to try to obtain a better salary elsewhere. For this reason, in the first three major league years of their careers, players accept comparatively low salaries even when their performance is stellar. This is an accepted practice; talented, young players are usually content to "pay their dues" in this way and earn a chance to negotiate for more in their fourth year. Occasionally, a team may wish to sign a player in his second or third year to a long-term contract, for which negotiation can take place for a much higher salary.

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Saturday, October 4, 2008

Rays Win Game 2 of 2008 ALDS and take 2-0 Lead; 9=8.com Was There (again)! 50+ Photos

Game 2 of the ALDS was a tremendous game that included many gutty performances, clutch hitting and some great bullpen work by the Rays. Scott Kazmir, after throwing 37 pitches in the first inning (and loading the bases with 0 outs), was able to battle through his rough start to give 5 1/3 strong innings giving up only 2 runs. In doing so, he earned his first career post season win and the Rays left for Chicago with a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. 9=8.com was there and we took 50+ pics that I wanted to share with all of you Rays fans (entire slide show is embedded below)! Oh, and it was LOUD at the Trop today. Someone said it was the 3rd loudest crowd in MLB history (that's been measured) and I believe it. It's certainly the loudest one I've ever been to.

As has been typical for the Rays all season, it was a total team effort. At the plate, every Rays starter collected a hit (there were 12 hits in all for the Rays). This balanced offensive attack was complemented by strong defense (as usual). Fernando Perez made a crucial out in the 2nd inning; an out that I believe made a huge impact on Kazmir as he was looking to get things on track. That catch is not supposed to be made and only a handful of major leaguers could have made that play. Truly sensational for the rookie’s playoff debut! The trio of Crawford, Upton and Perez in the outfield has to be a big concern for MLB. Those guys are SO FAST, that it is much tougher to get hits against this alignment.

And, what can you say about our bullpen? Whether it’s JP Howell, who is probably the top middle reliever in ALL OF MLB, Grant Balfour (he shut down a 2-baserunner situation in the fifth, which was a key moment in the game) or even Chad Bradford, they were all outstanding. Chad Bradford closed things out for the Rays allowing Dan Wheeler to get some rest before Sunday’s game.

I had the pleasure of attending this game again with my father and son (3 generations). We will remember these first two games forever and are looking forward to more Rays baseball (hopefully in the ALCS, but Game 5 of the ALDS is worst case). We already have our tickets and hope to see you there. Enjoy the pictures I took below!!!


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Sunday, September 28, 2008

9=8.com's Tampa Bay Rays 2008 ALDS Roster Projections

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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:

Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist

Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine

Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price

Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.

2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).

That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

WOW: Believe in the Tampa Bay Rays - a Season of Destiny?

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First it was Carl Crawford (our #3 hitter), the defensive stalwart and key member of the Rays offensive attack. No problem, we have Rocco Baldelli, Ben Zobrist, Eric Hinske, Justin Ruggianno, Gabe Gross, Dan Johnson...

Then, it was Evan Longoria (our #4 hitter and team leader in HR, RBIs and Slugging %). No problem, we have Willy Aybar.

Then, it was BJ Upton (our #2 hitter and team leader in walks, OBP as well as the AL leader in outfield assists), who has been playing with a torn Labrum in his left shoulder, who strained his quad chasing a ball on Monday at Fenway Park (in the biggest series the Rays have had in FRANCHISE HISTORY). He misses Tuesday and Wednesday's games. No problem, we have Fernando Perez, Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Gabe Gross, etc.

Then, it was Troy Percival. Troy has been hurt for months now and doesn't seem to be getting any better (despite what he is telling Maddon and the trainers). No problem, we have Dan Wheeler, and...JASON "the Hammer" HAMMEL!

The Rays just continue to find ways to win. Anchored by the #1 starting pitching staff in the AL and maybe the majors (sorry, Blue Jays, the Rays are the best) and the #1 bullpen in the AL and probably the Majors (if we had a closer), the cast of characters that have scored runs for this team seems to change every night.

Tuesday, it was Dan Johnson, who, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, after hitting a game-tying HR in the top of the 9th inning Tuesday night after being recalled from Triple-A, became the first player in the last 50 years to hit a September home run in the 9th inning (or later) in his first at-bat for a first-place team. I was listening to Boston Sports Radio during the game and the commentators couldn't even figure out who it was that tied the game! Then, it was Fernando Perez who, despite having some serious challenges hitting from the left side of the plate, smokes a near home run off of the Green Monster for a double. Navarro drove him in on the next at bat and Perez ended up being the winning run. Both Perez and Johnson were not even on this team a few short days ago (Perez joined on 9/1).

Last night, Carlos Pena came through with a CLUTCH home run in the 14th inning. Perhaps this was the least surprising hitter to do so as he's the only guy left standing in the heart of the Rays order. But, even this was not routine as Carlos hit the HR to the OPPOSITE FIELD! If you follow the Rays, you know that many teams play "the Shift" against Carlos because he always pulls the ball. Opposite field homer in the 14th inning?

Finally, our mop-up reliever, Jason Hammel, came into the game with bases loaded and nobody out. He promptly notched his FIRST CAREER SAVE with a strong showing against the heart of the Red Sox order (Kevin Youkilis - an AL MVP contender, Jason "should have been a Ray" Bay and Alex Cora). He threw some nasty pitches to "Not a Ray" Bay (first Red Sox player to go 0-for-7 in nearly 10 years) and stayed strong against Youk and Cora. JASON HAMMEL, Rays fans!!!

The only conclusions I can draw from these dramatic events of Tuesday and Wednesday (not to mention a bunch of other amazing comebacks, walkoffs and leaping, game-saving catches (Gabe Gross, Justin Ruggianno, BJ Upton, etc.) are the following:

1) This team has incredible heart. After starting September slow and hearing all the pundits say "I told you the Rays would fold..." this team picked itself up and notched the 2 biggest wins in franchise history! AND

2) This is a team of distiny. The Rays have found a way to win despite not having their #2, #3 and #4 hitters in the line-up and despite having no closer (sorry, Percy, you don't count right now). This is only possible

The Rays still have plenty of baseball left to play, but Tuesday and Wednesday may just prove to be the pivital moment in the 2008 Rays season. GO RAYS!!!

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Saturday, August 23, 2008

Rays September 1st Call-ups: What Moves Should the Rays Make?

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Maddon said he has met with his coaches and executive vice president Andrew Friedman about the team's September call-ups, and "we pretty much have an idea of what we'd like to do."

I took this snippet from a St. Pete Times online article and thought it would make for some interesting discussion. So, in short, what would you like to see the Rays do going into September to shore up the team for the pennant race (remember, the roster expands on September 1st)?

Here are a couple of possibilities/likelihoods:

1) Add David Price - starter or bullpen? He has looked very sharp in the minors with his smokin’ 98+ MPH fastball, among other things. He would bring a powerful lefty to the starting rotation or the bullpen (what do you think the right answer is for DP?). Of our 5 starters, 4 of them are right handed. In the bullpen, we only have 2 LHPs. So, our pitching staff is very right heavy and DP could provide a boost in this area (and this will be boosted once rosters expand on September 1st). A second LHP in the 5-man rotation could create a very tough setup for the opposition going forward (especially in the playoffs where you don't really need 5 starters). The difficulty with this decision is that the starting 5 have been SO GOOD this year and are getting better (all 5 starters have 10+ wins except our ace - he will get his today ;) ). Edwin Jackson might have been the odd man out, but he’s really heating up (5-1 in his last 6 starts giving up a total of 11 earned runs over 34 2/3 innings. Sonny is also pitching extremely well in August at 3-0 in 4 starts with an ERA of 2.92 (his no decision was actually his best outing giving up 1 earned run in 7 innings). Slotting David Price in the bullpen might be the answer, although that could disrupt what’s he’s got going on. If Troy Percival can't get healthy in September, perhaps Joe will put Balfour in the closer role and Price can assume the "strikeout" situation role that Balfour now fills (Price averages just over 1 SO per inning pitched).

2) Which other pitchers will contribute? Joe Maddon has shown a propensity to call on a lot of bullpen help in match-up fashion. Once rosters expand, it would not surprise me to see the bullpen swell quite a bit so that Joe can exact his match-up magic. It's possible that we might see some of our better talent join the team including Wade Davis, Jeff Nieman or even Mitch Talbot (who made a very brief appearance on the roster in July 2008). Who do you think deserves a slot on the roster, if anyone, and how can they contribute?


3) How much PT will Jonny Gomes get after roster expansion and will he be back? He’s got real power, but he is an all or nothing bet. Regardless, he might provide an emotional lift for the team down the stretch and could give the team a powerful right handed bat if Rocco struggles with his health. However, after starting hot in his first few games at AAA Durham, he’s only hitting .227 with 2 HR and 20 strikeouts in 16 games (ouch). I really like Jonny (he’s a super guy, the fans love him and he brings A LOT of energy to the clubhouse), but I fear he is going to be the odd man out unless he gets things going. Still, I do expect to see him rejoin the team in September.


4) Who plays right field? The reality is that the Rays are going to have some decisions to make once Carl Crawford rejoins the team. Ben Zobrist can play right field (his .250 BA, .345 OBP while only striking out 2 times is not bad), but he's unlikely to see much time with only 1 slot to fill. Willy Aybar is a utility guy, but won't get any work in Septemeber if no further injuries occur (he's got no PT in OF and the infield is spoken for when Longo gets back - it's too bad since he’s had 2 or more hits in 7 of his last 11 games and is hitting over .300 with 3 HR, 5 doubles and 9 RBIs since replacing Evan Longoria). So, it looks like right field will be split by Rocco against lefties (he’s hitting a solid .300 in August and hit his first HR last night), Hinske against righties and Gross against some righties and in defensive situations (e.g. after 7 innings if the Rays have the lead). The reality is, barring further injury, the Rays are going to have to make some decisions when Carl gets healthy, but Joe has a lot to choose from. I suspect we'll see a lot of "match-up" baseball down the stretch with the right field position.

The good news is that these are “high class” problems. The Rays have proven to have exceptional depth at pitching (with a huge potential “wild card” in David Price) and in the field/batters box. All of this depth is underscored by a team that has tremendous chemistry and strong leadership. I like where we stand and trust that Joe, Andrew and company will make the right decisions as tough as they may be.

So, tell me what you think?

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Friday, August 15, 2008

How Do the Rays Keep Winning with So Many Injuries (sorry, Hank, I am not going to whine about it)?

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How can the Rays be in the midst of a 5-2 road trip (3 more games to go) despite losing their #3 (Carl Crawford) and #4 (Evan Longoria) hitters, who were both getting hot right before their injuries (Carl and Evan accounted for a whopping 25% of the team's RBIs for 2008!!!)?

The answer lies in players like Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar and Rocco Baldelli. Since being recalled on August 5th, Ben Zobrist has a hit in 8 of 9 games played (he's hitting .272 during this stretch - not huge, but respectable) and has an on base percentage of .400 (that's strong for a #9 rookie hitter). Additionally, he's had some clutch hits such as his double in Oakland that proved to be the winning run. For a rookie who doesn't know whether to unpacl his suitcase or not, this is a major contribution to a team at a critical time.

Another great story is Willy Aybar, who has also hit .272 during the same stretch (filling in for Evan Longoria). Not only has he played a very solid 3B having committed 0 fielding errors and turned a healthy number of key double plays, he also had hist first 2 homerun game (August 10th at Seattle) and drove in 2 key runs on August 14th (Rays won the game by 1 run).

Finally, the return of Rocco Baldelli has been an emotional lift for this team. Rocco has been working with the Rays training team for months trying to deal with his medical condition and his return is a true testament to his tenacity and strong will. He has also made a huge impact in the field running down two awesome diving catches in right field (including the #1 ESPN Web Gem on August 14th). Rocco's ability to deal with this adversity demonstrates the heart and character of this team, which is the clear reason they continue to win. Oh, and let's not forget great pitching - giving up about 3.5 runs on this road trip.

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