Rays Look Impressive in Opening Series Against the Boston Red Sox

After dropping their Opening Day game 5-3 to the Red Sox (and a dominant Josh Beckett), the Rays answered with strong pitching performances by Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, both of whom picked up a win at Fenway. Lest we forget that it took until mid-September in 2008 for the Rays to pick up a single win on the road against the Red Sox, this was an impressive couple of wins for the Rays and a great way to kick off the 2009 season.

Key take-aways from the opening series:
1) Rays first 3 starters looked very strong. Shields was roughed up a little bit, but he never lost control of the game even though he gave up a few more than we would have liked. The Rays were still very much in Game 1 and could have tied/won the game with one or two timely hits late in the game. Kazmir's fastball was alive and well. He had some crazy movement on his consistent 92+ MPH fastball and was very much on with his change-up. We saw a few good sliders, but I hope to see more of them this year. Garza looked like he hasn't missed a beat since the ALCS. He is really tarting to come into his own. His stuff is just nasty!

2) Rays bats were alive and well after a quiet, 3-hit showing against Beckett. In total, the Rays put up 26 hits (including 13 for extra bases) and scored 14 runs. Notables include Longoria who was 6 for 14 with 2 doubles, 2 homeruns and 5 RBIs; Iwamura who was 5 for 10 with 2 doubles and 3 walks (on-base of .615). Carlos Pena had a rough start to the season going 0 for 5 with 5 Ks, but he contributed a 2-run homerun in Game 2 as well as a single and 3 BBs. His on-base is still nearly .400 even with his very weak start. Finally, Matt Joyce collected his first hit and his first homerun as a Ray in Game 3 when he launched one over the right field fence at Fenway. I like the way this kid looks a lot. As a side note, Edwin Jackson (whom the Rays traded for Matt Joyce) pitched lights out in his Detroit debut (April 7th - pitching as Detroits #2 starter) in what was probably his career best performance. He pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing only 2 hits and only 1 earned run. I hope we didn't let one get away....

3) Rays defense was a little shaky in the outfield, but got the job done. Both Kapler and Joyce had a little bit of trouble in CF. CF at Fenway is no easy task, to be fair, but the Rays will be vastly improved when BJ Upton returns to his post in CF and Joyce and Kapler can spend more time in RF.

Up next for the Rays are the very potent Baltimore Orioles offense (just ask CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang). The Rays should not take these guys lightly as they clearly have the ability to put some runs on the board quickly. I will be keen to see how Sonnanstine's new Changeup performs as well as how the back end of the Baltimore rotation holds up. While the Orioles have plenty of offensive fire power, their purported weakness is the starting rotation. Game time is 7:05PM tonight, 7:05PM tomorrow and 1:35PM on Sunday. Happy Easter!

Getting Ready for 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Baseball: Offseason Recap

After reading through an endless number of articles on Tampa Bay Rays rumors and moves, I thought it might be a helpful primer for Rays fans to have a summary of the most important offseason happenings. So, here goes.

The Rays were very busy this offseason. After an historic run to the World Series in 2008, the Rays set their sites on fielding an even better team in 2009. Going into the offseason, the Rays clearly outlined their primary goals in this article: right field and the bullpen. Additionally, the Rays noted that they had a glut of great pitching, some of which would like need to be moved to make room for other up and comers (especially those like Niemann and Hammels who are out of minor leagues options). With the recent announcement that Chad Bradford needed elbow surgery and will be out 3-4 months as a stark reminder of the realities of MLB, pitching depth is a great asset for the Rays.

So, jumping right in to the offseason summary. First, the Rays allowed several of their 2008 players (allowed because they chose not to resign them) to become free agents including Rocco Baldelli (signed by the Red Sox), Cliff Floyd (signed by the Padres), Eric Hinske (signed by the Pirates), Trevor Miller (signed by the Cardinals) and Johnny Gomes (signed a minor league contract with the Reds). All of these players contributed to the team’s success in 2008, so they will be missed. But, all things considered, the Rays did not lose a single full-time starter in the offseason to free agency! The good news is that all of the above mentioned players were role / platoon players; the bad news is that the Rays were successful last year in large part due to the contributions of its role players. But, I digress.

The biggest news for the Rays came in the signing of Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract. Burrell, one of the big guns available to the Rays (others included Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Ken Griffey, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi, to name a few). Burrell will be the Rays full-time DH and might be able to fill-in in RF from time to time (such as when the Rays play inter-league play or when they return to the World Series…!). Burrell has been a consistent source of power for the Phillies having hit an average of about 30 home runs in each of the last 7 seasons. While I really liked Cliff Floyd, Burrell represents a significant upgrade to the Rays DH position and he is right handed (the Rays lineup is a bit left-lopsided).

There were persistent rumors that the Rays were actively shopping some of their plethora of starting pitching. This manifested itself in the dealing of Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for hot prospect, Matt Joyce. Joyce is an up and coming left-handed batting right fielder who is now under the Rays’ control for 6 years. Jackson, a 14-game winner in 2008, will be sorely missed. But, the reality of his situation is that he will make $2.2 million in 2009 (he signed a 1-year deal with the Tigers for this amount) and he was likely to be on the outside looking in for the Rays starting rotation (with David Price eventually taking over the #5 slot).

Another great, but less talked about move, was the acquisition of Joe Nelson via free agency. Nelson is a top-shelf relief pitcher who pitched 54 innings for the Marlins in 2008 posting a stellar 2.00 ERA. He is a 34-year old veteran that the Rays agreed to pay $1.3 million in a one-year deal. The interesting tidbit of news on Nelson is that he received interest from 19 MLB teams (19!!!) and he CHOSE to join the Rays. When is the last time you heard of a player choosing to join the Tampa Bay Rays when he had multiple options? It truly IS a NEW DAY IN TAMPA BAY!!

Adding to Burrell, Nelson and Joyce, the Rays also signed veteran right-fielder (and body builder extraordinaire...well, not really) Gabe Kapler to a one-year $1 million deal. Kapler hit .354 with 22 RBIs against left handed pitching in 2008. One of the biggest problems for the Rays last year was hitting left handed pitching (the World Series made this very clear). Shoring up their right handed line-up seems like a pretty good idea since the AL East now includes the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Andy Petite, Jon Lester, etc. With Burrell at DH and Kapler as a platoon option in RF against lefties, I think the Rays did just that. This also gives the Rays another option in center field if BJ Upton needs more time to get ready; Kapler started 25 games in CF last year for the Brewers.

The Rays had a few other items to address and did so over the course of early 2009. Firstly, they lost their lefty specialist (Trevor Miller). Miller was a great asset to the Rays, but it appears as though he may have some injury issues to work through in 2009 and he was expensive. So, the Rays signed side-armed lefty 40-year old veteran Brian Shouse to a two-year deal (have you noticed a trend in the bullpen – veterans?). Shouse was a strong 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 69 games for the Brewers in 2008. Lefties only hit .180 off him, with an on-base percentage of .192. He is the prototypical specialist pitcher. The Rays also signed RHP Lance Cormier to a $675,000 deal to shore things up further. Lance has something to prove as his raw stats are not among the best of the Rays pen, but he's clearly a talented pitcher with good stuff...and the price was right. Between Shouse, Nelson, Bradford (once he gets healthy), Cormier, Howell, Balfour and Wheeler (not to mention Hammels and Niemann), hitters are going to get all kinds of different looks from the Rays bullpen this year.

In another interesting part of the baseball prospect/farm system process, the Rays lost promising pitching prospect, Eddie Morlan, to the Rule 5 draft. Eddie was a solid prospect with some pretty good numbers in the Rays' farm system. The good news is that the Rays were able to pick up a pretty interesting prospect in Derek Rodriguez. Rodriguez, a right-handed relief pitcher, is 25 years old. He posted some very good numbers in 2008, when he was 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 49 appearances in double-A and triple-A. He struck out 10 batters per 9 IP and a 2.7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. He also held opponents to a .191 batting average. The catch is that the Rays must give him back and pay $50,000 if he does not make the 25-man roster in 2009. But, we've seen some pretty good fortune from guys like this (e.g. Balfour), so it's a small price to pay for a very interesting prospect.

Tying up all the other loose ends, the Rays were also busy with a number of their players that were already under Rays control, but needed new contracts. The Rays avoided arbitration by signing Jason Bartlett to a 1-year deal worth about $2 million; signing Gabe Gross to a 1-year deal worth about $1.3 million; and signing Grant Balfour to a 1-year deal worth about $1.4 million (avoiding arbitration). The Rays have also been busily negotiating with Dioner Navarro and Willy Aybar, both of whom are arbitration eligible. The Rays would like to sign Navi to a long-term deal, but that did not happen. The St. Pete Times reported earlier today that the Rays were successful in their arbitration case against Navi. Navi will earn $2.1 million in 2009. Let's hope there are no hard feelings. It is possible that the Rays come to terms with Aybar prior to his arbitration case, but that looks less likely by the day. The Rays victory against Dioner might help things along here.

Well, that's a pretty complete overview of the offseason (except for a few minor league signings). If there is anything that I missed, don't hesitate to comment. Go Rays!

Rays Looking for Right Fielder - Who Fits the Bill?

UPDATE - EVAN LONGORIA WINS ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - CONGRATS, LONGO!!!

Arguably the Rays biggest need is an everyday right fielder (the Rays also talked recently about wanting to shore up the bullpen and add a starter - but I think the latter is likely to include David Price). Closer is a spot that has some questiosn marks (for obvious reasons), but the Rays are a bit hamstrung there as they have Percival under contract in 2009 for $4 million and he's shown that he can still pitch effectively when he's healthy. Thus, the Rays seem unlikely to make a big bet on a top shelf closer this offseason.

A much more likely scenario is that the Rays go for a strong right fielder / right handed bat to fill their biggest need. There are a number of potential guys that fit the bill, so here goes:

1) Matt Holliday is one of the biggest names out there that might fit within the Rays organization. He's a very high quality player even though he does have better home numbers (Coors Field effect) than he does road numbers. Even so, his road number are still pretty strong (.891+ OPS vs. .997+ OPS at home) and he is a very good all around player. The Rockies need pitching and the Rays have a ton of it. So, why not trade for him? Well, he only has 1 year left on his contract and he's likely to draw BIG BUCKS in the free agent market after the 2009 season. It's possible the Rays could try to resign him before 2009, but do they really want to make a large bet on a guy who has some risk (being away from Coors Field could make him more average)? Also, what would the Rays have to give up to get him?

2) Manny Ramirez is THE single best OF hitter available. But, I am not going to spend any time on him because he's simply not a fit with the way Joe Maddon and the Rays organization run things.

3) Magglio Ordonez is a relatively new name in the trade talks. He has been a very strong everyday player for the Tigers and is under contract making $18 million in 2009 with options of $15 million for 2010 ($3 million buyout) and $15 million for 2011 (no buyout). (Side note - Ordonez's salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million). That's a lot of money for the Rays to spend on a right fielder, but Ordonez is the real deal and he has proven that he's healthy and is a premier hitter in MLB. Interestingly, his home/road splits are actally more severe than Holliday's (.771 OPS on the Road vs. .974 at home in 2008).

4) Bobby Abreu is a free agent and can still play a decent right field (very strong arm). But, he's a left handed bat and the Rays would really like to pick up a solid right handed bat in their new right fielder. Abreu also made about $16,000,000 in 2008 and he may draw something close to that number this year given his consistent bat and acceptable RF play. The big upside is that he is a free agent and won't cost the Rays any talent to acquire. The downside is that he's just not as good as the guys mentioned above.

5) Fernando Perez, Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Gross, Ben Zobrist and Justin Ruggiano. The Rays used a platoon in 2008 in RF and they got to the World Series. Would the Rays be better off using their considerable farm talent to fill this hole instead of giving up some of their prized pitching in a trade? For example, the Rays might consider moving Upton to RF and putting Perez in center (his natural position). BJ plays a very good CF and I am not sure it'd be the best thing to move him into yet another position in 2009, but it's certainly an option. Or, they could utilize Rocco as their DH/RF and platoon him with Perez or Zobrist. Ruggiano is another contender although he went ICE COLD at the plate when he had opportunities in 2008. But, he's got some talent, no doubt about it.

So, the Rays have some thinking to do here and there appears to be only upside at the right field position in 2009. The Rays were able to get to the World Series in 2008 largely with the team that's returning in 2009. Any upgrade in the starting pitching rotation (e.g. David Price) is a big bonus as well as any upgrade in RF. Personally, baseball games are won with pitching, so I'd like to see the Rays tread carefully with their very good, young arms (esp. Sonny and Jackson). The Rays were blessed with very few pitching injuries in 2008, but you can't count on that happening every year (just as the Yankees). As for Right Field, I don't expect any sort of blockbuster deal, but I also did not expect to see the Rays ship Delmon Young out last year, so you never know!

Pena Wins First Gold Glove; MLB Salary Arbitration Explained and more...

First of all, 9=8.com wants to extend a congrats to Carlos Pena for winning his first (and a Rays franchise first) Gold Glove for his defensive play at first base. Not only did Carlos lead all first basemen with only 2 errors all year, but he made a meaningful number of very tough plays during the regular season. As we saw this year and last, Carlos is one of the best first basemen in all of MLB (offensively and defensively) and has emerged as a leader for the Rays.

Evan Longoria and Joe Maddon look poised to collect some well-deserved hardware next week as well, so stay tuned!

On another note, there has been a lot of talk about what's going on with the Rays, salary arbitration, trade talks, etc. I am working on another post to talk about the Rays needs and potential deals (for free agents as well as trade rumors/ideas), but I'll save that for another day. Today, I wanted to share some details on salary arbitration as it can get a bit confusing. The Rays have the following players elgible for salary arbitration and this will definitely raise the payroll for the 2009 Rays with their 2008 salary noted (hopefully not to the point where they can't get the everyday RF or closer that they need):

• Grant Balfour ($500,000);
• Edwin Jackson ($412,700);
• Dioner Navarro ($412,500);
• Willy Aybar ($401,200);
• Jason Bartlett ($416,600);
• Jonny Gomes ($1,275,000); and
• Gabe Gross ($414,000)

The Rays will need to address these players through arbitration assuming they wish to keep them for 2009. Of those on the list above, it's very possible that the Rays let Jonny Gomes go on his way (or at least offer him much less than his $1,250,000 salary). Other notable salary relief the Rays will get include the following players who might not return in 2009 (or, if they do, they will likely earn less than in 2008): Rocco Baldelli ($2,250,000), Cliff Floyd ($2,750,000), and Trevor Miller ($1,600,000). Also, Troy Percival ($3,897,797) will be done after 2009 when his contract expires, so the Rays know they will have that money rolling off next year. There are lots of things to consider this off-season (per this article in the St. Pete Times yesterday). Will the Rays trade BJ Upton? Will they trade Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine? Maybe Scott Kazmir? Lots of crazy rumors have been flying around, so check back for my post on possible trades the Rays could make or free agents they could sign. In the mean time, here's the breif education on Salary Arbitration in MLB.

Salary Arbitration (from Wikipedia)
If a player is drafted and is offered a contract by his drafting team (or any team he is traded to) each year, he may not become a free agent until he has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least six years. Otherwise, any player without a contract may become a free agent and sign with any team.

A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

• is ineligible for free agency
• is without a contract
• cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
  has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years

"Super Two" exception - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:

• Meets the first three requirements from above
• Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
• Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience
• In this process, the player and the team both submit a salary offer for a new contract; the arbitrator chooses one number or the other, whichever is thought to be most "fair" given comparable wages among players with similar ability and service time. Players thus rely on arbitration and free agency to increase their salaries.

Players eligible for neither free agency nor salary arbitration are very seldom offered contracts for much more than the league minimum salary, as the player has no recourse to try to obtain a better salary elsewhere. For this reason, in the first three major league years of their careers, players accept comparatively low salaries even when their performance is stellar. This is an accepted practice; talented, young players are usually content to "pay their dues" in this way and earn a chance to negotiate for more in their fourth year. Occasionally, a team may wish to sign a player in his second or third year to a long-term contract, for which negotiation can take place for a much higher salary.

Rays Magical Season Comes to an End - No 2nd Guessing Here

Well, the magical 2008 baseball season has come to an end for Rays fans. First and foremost, I want to congratulate the Rays for a great season that exceeded everyone's wildest expectations. The Rays are the 2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONS, for crying out loud (and I am crying inside, cause I selfishly wanted more). 9=8.com is not going to second guess Maddon's decision to let JP Howell hit, nor are we going to ask why Aki wasn't able to make that catch, nor are we going to second guess the saving of David Price until it was too late, nor are we going to second guess BJ Upton for swinging at the first pitch. No, we are not going to do that because that would cast a cloud on this great season.

But, I do expect to think about this loss for more than 30 minutes, sorry, Joe Maddon. There are so many "coulda" "shoulda" "woulda's" from this series that it does make my stomach churn. Not until Game 5 did we see the real Tampa Bay Rays of 2008 and even then, a costly baserunning mistake and a could of "coulda made" defensive plays were the difference in the game. Games 1-4 were full of errors, misplays and slumping hitters (no timely hitting this time around and not a lot of defense, either). Perhaps the boys were a little tight or even running low on gas after a very emotional August and September filled with many big and very tense games. We can learn from this great experience and return in 2009 with a burning hunger to get back to the big dance and win the trophy!

I can't explain what happened as I still believe the Tampa Bay Rays of 2008 had every chance to win the World Series if they'd been able to play their game. It is disappointing, but also inspiring to see this young team accomplish so much, but still fall short of the ultimate goal of every MLB team. That is now history and we must more forward.

Looking forward to 2009, the Rays are going to be a team to contend with for sure. With a starting rotation of James Shields, Scott Kazmir, David Price, Matt Garza and either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, it's hard not to get excited. Add to that mix a genuine closer through off-season dealing (or through grooming a guy like Edwin Jackson, who has closer-like stuff) and the bullpen is looking pretty stout as well. Can the Rays make a move in the offseason for a big right handed bat? Many think that it's imperative to do so and it's hard to disagree.

So, in closing (and until I have anything else interesting to say about the Rays of 2008), THANK YOU to the Tampa Bay Rays organization for a season baseball will be talking about for decades. This story is only bested by the 1969 Mets or maybe the 1991 Braves. It truly is one of the best stories in baseball in a very long time. A perennial cellar dweller wins its division (by far the hardest one in all of baseball) and goes to the World Series! Additionally, the Rays are doing things the right way. I am VERY excited about the 2009 season and can't wait for things to gear back up. Hey, pitchers and catchers report in a short 3 months, which really doesn't seem like that far away!

Fans, let's support this team. Buy up those season ticket packages (even if it's only a 20-gamer that you have to split with 2-3 friends) and get out to the Trop. Your team needs you!

GO RAYS!!!

9=8.com's Tampa Bay Rays 2008 ALDS Roster Projections

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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:

Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist

Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine

Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price

Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.

2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).

That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.

Blue Jays Starting Top 3 Pitchers vs. Red Sox on Short Rest

Some good news for the Rays (if you are into scoreboard watching, that is). The Blue Jays announced that A.J. Burnett, Jesse Litsch and Roy Halladay all will pitch on three days' rest against Boston. In addition, the Red Sox are going to have to face the hot LHP David Purcey (at least, he's hot against the Rays having given up 1 run in 16 innings against us in his last 2 starts) in their first game tonight (Wakefield is pitching for the BoSox). This is great news for the Rays for several reasons.

1) The Jays have a top 2 (Rays are #1 in my opinion) starting rotation in the MLB and the Jays are red hot - good opportunity for the Rays to gain some ground if we can take the series from the Yankees (will not be easy, but the Rays can do it for sure).

2) The Jays believe they are in the Wild Card hunt (and they are if they can win or sweep the Red Sox series) and will be playing for their lives. The Red Sox know they needs to string some wins together before coming down to the Trop. That means both sides will be playing some very intense baseball for 3 days before having to fly down and play a 3-game set at the Trop. The Red Sox will not be able to preserve their bullpen as they cannot afford to conserve for the Rays series. Let's hope for some extra innings battles in this series!

3) The Rays/Red Sox series is going to be no picnic for Red Sox hitters either as they will face Scott Kazmir right out of the gate. They also have to deal with the mental block of having lost all games they've played at the Trop thus far. I am not sure how big an issue this will be, but it is something that will be in their minds, for sure.

The Rays do not have an easy task at hand either with their visit to Yankee Stadium, but I believe we have a very good chance to win this series. Here are the Rays matchups for the weekend:

Friday - Garza vs. Ponson
Saturday - Shields vs. Mussina
Sunday - Jackson vs. Pavano

No easy task for sure, but they are all RHPs and the Rays are fired up after the Red Sox series. Perhaps we will see BJ Upton and Evan Longoria in the lineup as well, which would be outstanding news! There is going to be some GREAT baseball for the next week!