Getting back to "Raysball"?

Last night was the first night all season where I recognized the team I’ve come to love. No there wasn’t an explosion of home runs (at least HRs that mattered, sorry Carlos and JB) and there wasn’t anything fancy about the way the Rays chipped away at the Twins on offense with regular old timely base hits. The win was a combination of great starting pitching (hey, this Niemann guy sure has quieted down the “where is David Price” crowd with his stellar pitching after the first inning of his first outing), solid defense (no real blunders except the ball that Aki misplayed a bit) and a shut-down bullpen (no runs allowed). Were it not for the icing on the cake homeruns from Carlos and JB, this game, at 4-1, looked a lot like the Rays from 2008 (and that makes me very happy).

I’ve also noticed a couple of very positive trends:

1) the bullpen is really starting to come around - after a rough start, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has given up only 3 earned runs in the last 6 games over a total of 17 innings pitched (that’d be an ERA of 1.59 for those of you that are math challenged)

2) The starting pitchers are showing signs of progress. After a slow ramp up to full speed, intentionally done by Joe Maddon given the post-season run of 2008 (oh, the good old days), the Rays starting pitchers have not quite been themselves over their first few starts (you might equate these to what would normally be their last few starts of a normal spring training period).

• Shields looked a little rough in his first start against the Red Sox, came out smoking in his second start giving up only 3 hits in 7 innings, and then gave up 5 runs in his third start. Shields was anything if consistent in 2008. In his 4th start, Shields appeared to have very good control of his pitches, seems to have his velocity back up into the 92 MPH range and was mowing hitters down on his way to a 0-1 loss to Seattle.
  
• Kazmir has actually been pretty good with a few rough innings here and there (remember the 10 straight balls to begin the White Sox on 4/18…ugh). Well, he bounced back with 6 shutout innings against the A’s.
  
• Garza took a little while to get going last year, but his stuff is just plain nasty. I’ve not really seen Garza come around, but I am confident he will.
  
• Sonny has been roughed up pretty good in his first 4 starts. He’s simply not locating his pitches. But, Sonny is a feel pitcher and I’m hopeful that he’ll get the touch back soon.
  
• And, what can we say about Niemann? He has been more than we ever could have hoped for. Despite his record of 2-2, he’s kept the Rays in the game. With the exception of his first, very shaky inning, Niemann has been one of the Rays most consistent starters so far. If he can keep this up, I suspect you will see him in this rotation for a while in 2009.

3) Burrell is starting to hit and he is clearly seeing the ball better. Burrell was brought in to improve the Rays chances against lefties (especially the likes of Jon Lester, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitt). But, he’s also served as very valuable protection for Carlos Pena, who is currently leading the AL in home runs and RBIs. That’s no coincidence. When pitchers had the luxury of working the black on Carlos, he was not as potent. But, if they have to throw strikes to him, he’s going to make them pay. You could make the same argument for Longoria, who is also off to a very hot start. He's got Carl Crawform on one side and Carlos Pena on the other. Well, despite his .238 average, Burrell has an OBP of .364 for the 2009 season, AND, he’s hitting .272 over his last 10 games with an OBP of .429. Those aren’t eye-popping, but they are up significantly from the .100-something he was hitting in the first 10 games (it was so bad, I don't even want to calculate it). In addition, he’s drawn 9 walks in the last 10 games. When hitters are walking, they are hitting. Burrell is starting to come around and is likely about to break out for the Rays (that’s my prediction).

So, what am I worried about? Well, other than being in last place 12.3% into the season, I am most worried about BJ Upton. He’s been in a severe slump and it makes me wonder if his shoulder is just not quite right, yet. Maybe it would serve him well to hit #7, #8 or #9 for a couple of weeks to take some pressure off. After all, Aki and JB have been very strong in April and have both proven they are able to handle the leadoff spot. BJ is the future leadoff guy for this team and he has the potential to be a Ricky Henderson type leadoff guy (unique combination of power and speed). But, he can’t do it until he gets his head right. If BJ is not hitting, that hurts in a big way. In a lot of ways, the leadoff guy sets the tone for each game. Let’s recall BJ’s first game back against the Yankees on 4/13. He walked on 6 pitches to start the game. He then stole second AND third base! He then scored on a hit by Carlos Pena. That set the tone for a game that ended with the Rays a big winner 15-5 (BJ finished 1-3 with 3 walks, 2 SBs and 2 runs scored). BJ ate up 30 pitches in that game! For comparison’s sake, Game 2 of the Yankees series was a different story. BJ struck out swinging in his first at bat and was on his way to an 0-4 game with a hat trick (3 Ks and he only saw 16 pitches in that game). The Rays lost the game 7-2, collected a meager 3 hits and didn’t score until the 7th inning. Now, I am not blaming that loss on BJ since the bullpen was the real culprit that time, but I make the point that an impactful leadoff guy can get a team going early. BJ has the potential to shape each and every game right out of the gate.

Let’s all hope that BJ gets back into the swing of things soon (or just finds ways to get on base). We should all keep an eye on his progress. With some of the other pieces starting to come together, I strongly believe that BJ is the lynch pin that could ignite a nice run by the Rays in 2009.

Rays Win Game 2 of 2008 ALDS and take 2-0 Lead; 9=8.com Was There (again)! 50+ Photos

Game 2 of the ALDS was a tremendous game that included many gutty performances, clutch hitting and some great bullpen work by the Rays. Scott Kazmir, after throwing 37 pitches in the first inning (and loading the bases with 0 outs), was able to battle through his rough start to give 5 1/3 strong innings giving up only 2 runs. In doing so, he earned his first career post season win and the Rays left for Chicago with a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. 9=8.com was there and we took 50+ pics that I wanted to share with all of you Rays fans (entire slide show is embedded below)! Oh, and it was LOUD at the Trop today. Someone said it was the 3rd loudest crowd in MLB history (that's been measured) and I believe it. It's certainly the loudest one I've ever been to.

As has been typical for the Rays all season, it was a total team effort. At the plate, every Rays starter collected a hit (there were 12 hits in all for the Rays). This balanced offensive attack was complemented by strong defense (as usual). Fernando Perez made a crucial out in the 2nd inning; an out that I believe made a huge impact on Kazmir as he was looking to get things on track. That catch is not supposed to be made and only a handful of major leaguers could have made that play. Truly sensational for the rookie’s playoff debut! The trio of Crawford, Upton and Perez in the outfield has to be a big concern for MLB. Those guys are SO FAST, that it is much tougher to get hits against this alignment.

And, what can you say about our bullpen? Whether it’s JP Howell, who is probably the top middle reliever in ALL OF MLB, Grant Balfour (he shut down a 2-baserunner situation in the fifth, which was a key moment in the game) or even Chad Bradford, they were all outstanding. Chad Bradford closed things out for the Rays allowing Dan Wheeler to get some rest before Sunday’s game.

I had the pleasure of attending this game again with my father and son (3 generations). We will remember these first two games forever and are looking forward to more Rays baseball (hopefully in the ALCS, but Game 5 of the ALDS is worst case). We already have our tickets and hope to see you there. Enjoy the pictures I took below!!!

9=8.com's Tampa Bay Rays 2008 ALDS Roster Projections

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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:

Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist

Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine

Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price

Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.

2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).

That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.

WOW: Believe in the Tampa Bay Rays - a Season of Destiny?

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First it was Carl Crawford (our #3 hitter), the defensive stalwart and key member of the Rays offensive attack. No problem, we have Rocco Baldelli, Ben Zobrist, Eric Hinske, Justin Ruggianno, Gabe Gross, Dan Johnson...

Then, it was Evan Longoria (our #4 hitter and team leader in HR, RBIs and Slugging %). No problem, we have Willy Aybar.

Then, it was BJ Upton (our #2 hitter and team leader in walks, OBP as well as the AL leader in outfield assists), who has been playing with a torn Labrum in his left shoulder, who strained his quad chasing a ball on Monday at Fenway Park (in the biggest series the Rays have had in FRANCHISE HISTORY). He misses Tuesday and Wednesday's games. No problem, we have Fernando Perez, Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Gabe Gross, etc.

Then, it was Troy Percival. Troy has been hurt for months now and doesn't seem to be getting any better (despite what he is telling Maddon and the trainers). No problem, we have Dan Wheeler, and...JASON "the Hammer" HAMMEL!

The Rays just continue to find ways to win. Anchored by the #1 starting pitching staff in the AL and maybe the majors (sorry, Blue Jays, the Rays are the best) and the #1 bullpen in the AL and probably the Majors (if we had a closer), the cast of characters that have scored runs for this team seems to change every night.

Tuesday, it was Dan Johnson, who, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, after hitting a game-tying HR in the top of the 9th inning Tuesday night after being recalled from Triple-A, became the first player in the last 50 years to hit a September home run in the 9th inning (or later) in his first at-bat for a first-place team. I was listening to Boston Sports Radio during the game and the commentators couldn't even figure out who it was that tied the game! Then, it was Fernando Perez who, despite having some serious challenges hitting from the left side of the plate, smokes a near home run off of the Green Monster for a double. Navarro drove him in on the next at bat and Perez ended up being the winning run. Both Perez and Johnson were not even on this team a few short days ago (Perez joined on 9/1).

Last night, Carlos Pena came through with a CLUTCH home run in the 14th inning. Perhaps this was the least surprising hitter to do so as he's the only guy left standing in the heart of the Rays order. But, even this was not routine as Carlos hit the HR to the OPPOSITE FIELD! If you follow the Rays, you know that many teams play "the Shift" against Carlos because he always pulls the ball. Opposite field homer in the 14th inning?

Finally, our mop-up reliever, Jason Hammel, came into the game with bases loaded and nobody out. He promptly notched his FIRST CAREER SAVE with a strong showing against the heart of the Red Sox order (Kevin Youkilis - an AL MVP contender, Jason "should have been a Ray" Bay and Alex Cora). He threw some nasty pitches to "Not a Ray" Bay (first Red Sox player to go 0-for-7 in nearly 10 years) and stayed strong against Youk and Cora. JASON HAMMEL, Rays fans!!!

The only conclusions I can draw from these dramatic events of Tuesday and Wednesday (not to mention a bunch of other amazing comebacks, walkoffs and leaping, game-saving catches (Gabe Gross, Justin Ruggianno, BJ Upton, etc.) are the following:

1) This team has incredible heart. After starting September slow and hearing all the pundits say "I told you the Rays would fold..." this team picked itself up and notched the 2 biggest wins in franchise history! AND

2) This is a team of distiny. The Rays have found a way to win despite not having their #2, #3 and #4 hitters in the line-up and despite having no closer (sorry, Percy, you don't count right now). This is only possible

The Rays still have plenty of baseball left to play, but Tuesday and Wednesday may just prove to be the pivital moment in the 2008 Rays season. GO RAYS!!!

Rays September 1st Call-ups: What Moves Should the Rays Make?

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Maddon said he has met with his coaches and executive vice president Andrew Friedman about the team's September call-ups, and "we pretty much have an idea of what we'd like to do."

I took this snippet from a St. Pete Times online article and thought it would make for some interesting discussion. So, in short, what would you like to see the Rays do going into September to shore up the team for the pennant race (remember, the roster expands on September 1st)?

Here are a couple of possibilities/likelihoods:

1) Add David Price - starter or bullpen? He has looked very sharp in the minors with his smokin’ 98+ MPH fastball, among other things. He would bring a powerful lefty to the starting rotation or the bullpen (what do you think the right answer is for DP?). Of our 5 starters, 4 of them are right handed. In the bullpen, we only have 2 LHPs. So, our pitching staff is very right heavy and DP could provide a boost in this area (and this will be boosted once rosters expand on September 1st). A second LHP in the 5-man rotation could create a very tough setup for the opposition going forward (especially in the playoffs where you don't really need 5 starters). The difficulty with this decision is that the starting 5 have been SO GOOD this year and are getting better (all 5 starters have 10+ wins except our ace - he will get his today ;) ). Edwin Jackson might have been the odd man out, but he’s really heating up (5-1 in his last 6 starts giving up a total of 11 earned runs over 34 2/3 innings. Sonny is also pitching extremely well in August at 3-0 in 4 starts with an ERA of 2.92 (his no decision was actually his best outing giving up 1 earned run in 7 innings). Slotting David Price in the bullpen might be the answer, although that could disrupt what’s he’s got going on. If Troy Percival can't get healthy in September, perhaps Joe will put Balfour in the closer role and Price can assume the "strikeout" situation role that Balfour now fills (Price averages just over 1 SO per inning pitched).

2) Which other pitchers will contribute? Joe Maddon has shown a propensity to call on a lot of bullpen help in match-up fashion. Once rosters expand, it would not surprise me to see the bullpen swell quite a bit so that Joe can exact his match-up magic. It's possible that we might see some of our better talent join the team including Wade Davis, Jeff Nieman or even Mitch Talbot (who made a very brief appearance on the roster in July 2008). Who do you think deserves a slot on the roster, if anyone, and how can they contribute?

3) How much PT will Jonny Gomes get after roster expansion and will he be back? He’s got real power, but he is an all or nothing bet. Regardless, he might provide an emotional lift for the team down the stretch and could give the team a powerful right handed bat if Rocco struggles with his health. However, after starting hot in his first few games at AAA Durham, he’s only hitting .227 with 2 HR and 20 strikeouts in 16 games (ouch). I really like Jonny (he’s a super guy, the fans love him and he brings A LOT of energy to the clubhouse), but I fear he is going to be the odd man out unless he gets things going. Still, I do expect to see him rejoin the team in September.

4) Who plays right field? The reality is that the Rays are going to have some decisions to make once Carl Crawford rejoins the team. Ben Zobrist can play right field (his .250 BA, .345 OBP while only striking out 2 times is not bad), but he's unlikely to see much time with only 1 slot to fill. Willy Aybar is a utility guy, but won't get any work in Septemeber if no further injuries occur (he's got no PT in OF and the infield is spoken for when Longo gets back - it's too bad since he’s had 2 or more hits in 7 of his last 11 games and is hitting over .300 with 3 HR, 5 doubles and 9 RBIs since replacing Evan Longoria). So, it looks like right field will be split by Rocco against lefties (he’s hitting a solid .300 in August and hit his first HR last night), Hinske against righties and Gross against some righties and in defensive situations (e.g. after 7 innings if the Rays have the lead). The reality is, barring further injury, the Rays are going to have to make some decisions when Carl gets healthy, but Joe has a lot to choose from. I suspect we'll see a lot of "match-up" baseball down the stretch with the right field position.

The good news is that these are “high class” problems. The Rays have proven to have exceptional depth at pitching (with a huge potential “wild card” in David Price) and in the field/batters box. All of this depth is underscored by a team that has tremendous chemistry and strong leadership. I like where we stand and trust that Joe, Andrew and company will make the right decisions as tough as they may be.

So, tell me what you think?