Thursday, August 6, 2009

Tampa Bay Rays Sweep Red Sox; Gaining Momentum for the 2009 AL East CHASE!

It's official, the bandwagon is leaving the station, so hop on. After a number of scorching articles from the local rags (see below), the Tampa Bay sports writers seem to be jumping back on the Rays bandwagon. Today, after the Rays finished a 2-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox, Joe Henderson of the Tampa Tribune writes that the "Sweep Puts the Rays Right Back in the Race" and Gary Shelton from the St. Pete Times writes that "It's Official: Tampa Bay Rays Are a Playoff Contender."

Of course, as recently as July 28, 2009, Gary wrote that "By now, however, this has happened too many times to believe the Rays will simply wake up one day and snap out of it." He was talking about the need for the Rays to cash in their deep farm talent pool for someone like Halladay or Lee because the Rays don't have what it takes. And, on July 30, 2009, Martin Fennelly of the Tampa Tribune wrote that Rays May Not Have Answers and said such silly things as: "[The Rays] won't see [the Yankees] again until September in New York, and by that point they might need binoculars to spot them"; "But it's also hard to believe that the current crew will emerge from its slumber for a true September run"; and "Wednesday [July 29, 2009], you could almost hear a playoff race disappear."

So I get that these guys are trying to sell newspapers and all that, but I also understand that they've never really been through a AL East Pennant CHASE either. So, I'll cut them a little bit of slack just this once.

Last night was a big night for the Rays. First and foremost, the Rays took care of their business by winning the second of a 2-game mini series against the Red Sox. This brings the Rays to within 3.0 games in the Wild Card race and gives the Rays an 8-4 head-to-head record against the Red Sox (this could be important if the Wild Card or AL East Pennant comes down to a tie breaker). In addition, with the Texas Rangers loss to the Oakland A's, the Rays have now drawn even with the Rangers in the Wild Card Race. For our friendly local sports writers, take note of how quickly things can change in baseball (Rays gained 2 games int he Wild Card on each of the Red Sox and Rangers in just 2 short days).

However, as I wrote in an earlier post, this is only the beginning of a very important week of baseball for the Rays. The Rays depart for a tough 6-game West Coast road trip where the Rays will meet the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (that's a mouthful). The good news is that the Rays appear to be catching a break as it relates to pitching matchups. While the Rays will face the Mariners' Ace on Friday, they will miss two of the Mariners young lefties and they will avoid the LA Angels two best pitchers (Jared Weaver; 11-3 and 3.79 ERA and LAA Ace John Lackey; 7-4 and 3.96 ERA).

Perhaps more importantly, some of the key players on the Rays are showing some signs of life. Carlos Pena hit a giant home run last night (on a full count), but he also worked a great at bat in earning a walk later in the game (again on a full count). If you've watched much Rays baseball, you know that Carlos Pena is hitting best when he's walking often. If he can take yesterday's game and carry that forward, we'll see some good things from Carlos Pena in the coming weeks. Secondly, Pat Burrell has 2 home runs in his last 8 games and looks more comfortable at the plate. It's way to early to suggest that Pat is breaking out of his season long slump, but it's encouraging to see him contribute.

While the Rays have their hands full with a west coast road trip, the Yankees and the Red Sox are going to duke it out in the Bronx for a 4-game set. This is sure to be a taxing series on both team and should provide the Rays with an opportunity to gain some ground (if we take care of our business). Following that series, the Red Sox will face the HOT Detroit Tigers for a 4-game set at home followed by a brief road trip down to Texas. The sum of all this is that the Rays may very well have a huge opportunity to make a move over the next week or so in the AL East (or at least the Wild Card).

Rays fans should stock up on Red Bull as we have a number of late nights ahead of us this coming week.

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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

GAME ON - Rays Fans Experience First Chase for the AL Pennant

Last year, the Tampa Bay Rays spent all of August and September fighting off the Red Sox to maintain their AL East lead. In 2009, the Rays are the ones that are going to have to chase down their AL East rivals. With both the Red Sox and the Yankees fielding very tough teams (and spending big money in the off season), the Rays have their work cut out for them. BUT, is there really anything more exciting than a bona-fide pennant race? I stated from the very beginning that all I ask of the Rays organization is that they find a way to be in the hunt come August and September. Before 2008, the Rays never played a meaningful game past June! So, here we find ourselves...confused (funky ground rules and all)...exhausted...AND EXSTATIC!!!

The Rays finally found a little bit of magic last night and now find themselves in good shape to make a move on the Red Sox. While taking nothing for granted (the Rays will have to grind it out tonight if they want to win), the Rays could get a "walk-off" boost after last night's dramatic 5-hour, 13th inning win. Additionally, the Red Sox bullpen has to be exhuasted after every single pitcher participated in the game and threw a total of 130 pitches including 30 pitches from each of Bard, Ramirez and Saito. The Rays bullpen, in contrast, threw only 80 pitches and should be fully available for tonight's game (especially since they have an off day). To make things even more difficult for the Red Sox, they do not benefit from the off day, but rather head to New York for what will likely be a grueling 4-game series against the Yankees. All of this seems to bode well for the Rays chances of closing the Wild Card gap.

The Rays currently sit 4.0 games behind the Red Sox and 1.0 game behind the Texas Rangers for the Wild Card (and 5.5 back of the Yankees for the AL East lead). Given their current position, the Rays have a lot of work to do, but they still control their own destiny! The Rays have 7 more games against the Red Sox, 6 more games against the Texas Rangers and 7 more games against the New York Yankees. In addition to that, the Rays are finding ways to win even when they aren't hitting on all cylinders.

All of this brings me to the fun and excitement of Rays Fans' first genuine pennant CHASE! Last year was amazing and one to remember forever. But, the table is set for a potentially dramatic race to the finish. If the Rays can hang around the hoop until mid-September, things should be pretty exciting for the Rays. The Rays sport one of the best home records in baseball (and are tied for most home wins in all of MLB at 35) and finish the season with 12 of their last 15 games at Tropicana Field including a 3-game set against the Yankees on October 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Buckle your seatbelts, Rays fans!

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

HUGE Week of Baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays 2009 Playoff Race



In what could be one of the best opportunities for the Rays to gain some ground in the brutal American League East pennant race, the Rays kick off a 2-game set against the Boston Red Sox. First up will be Matt Garza vs. Jon Lester. On Wednesday, the Rays will throw David Price against Brad Penney. It's goes without saying that a 2-game sweep of the Red Sox would be HUGE. More interestingly, the Red Sox follow-up their "Stop at the Trop" with a 4-game weekend series against the New York Yankees. Given the Red Sox domination of the Yankees to date, this series could offer up big swing in fortunes for the Rays.


In addition, the Yankees face Roy Halladay tonight (against Andy Pettite) and throw Sergio Mitre (who's been TERRIBLE - 7.90 ERA) against 3.25 ERA throwing Marc Rzepczynski (who's been a very big positive surprise for the Blue Jays this year). SOOOOO...as it is always fun to speculate, it's not a stretch at all to see the Rays picking up 2-3 games on each of the Red Sox and the Yankees if they can take care of business tonight and tomorrow night against the Red Sox and follow that up with a winning road trip (4-2 would be a good goal for the SEA and LAA series).


I can't state the importance of the Rays next road trip either. This will be the 3rd to last major road trip of the year (the 11-game Sept 7-17 trip is THE BIG ONE, which includes a double-header at Yankee Stadium, but we'll worry about that one later) and is on the West Coast. The WC trips have notoriously been tough on the Rays, so a 4-2 record on this jaunt would be a big win, in my opinion.


Just for fun, here is how things very well could shake out over the next week: Rays take both games from the Red Sox and the Yankees drop both games to Toronto today and tomorrow (based on pitching matchups and home field advantage, this is a very plausible scenario, in my opinion). That would put the Rays 3.0 and 3.5 games back of the Red Sox and Yankees, respectively, after the next 2 days. If the Rays can take 2 out of 3 against Seattle and either the Yankees or the Red Sox wins their weekend series (I'll assume the Yankees win 3 out of 4 for this example as I believe in regression to the mean in baseball), the Rays would then be 4.0 games back of the Yankees and 1.5 games behind the Red Sox. If the Yankees can sweep Boston (seems unlikely to me, but possible), then the Rays would only be 0.5 games behind the Red Sox. If the Red Sox continue their domination of the Yankees in 2009 and sweep them, then the Rays would find themselves 4.5 games behind the Red Sox and 1.0 games behind the Yankees.


No matter how you slice it, the Rays are VERY MUCH in the playoff hunt if they can win their next 2 series (that's the big assumption in my analysis). Thus, this IS A HUGE WEEK OF BASEBALL FOR THE TAMPA BAY RAYS!!!