Getting back to "Raysball"?

Last night was the first night all season where I recognized the team I’ve come to love. No there wasn’t an explosion of home runs (at least HRs that mattered, sorry Carlos and JB) and there wasn’t anything fancy about the way the Rays chipped away at the Twins on offense with regular old timely base hits. The win was a combination of great starting pitching (hey, this Niemann guy sure has quieted down the “where is David Price” crowd with his stellar pitching after the first inning of his first outing), solid defense (no real blunders except the ball that Aki misplayed a bit) and a shut-down bullpen (no runs allowed). Were it not for the icing on the cake homeruns from Carlos and JB, this game, at 4-1, looked a lot like the Rays from 2008 (and that makes me very happy).

I’ve also noticed a couple of very positive trends:

1) the bullpen is really starting to come around - after a rough start, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has given up only 3 earned runs in the last 6 games over a total of 17 innings pitched (that’d be an ERA of 1.59 for those of you that are math challenged)

2) The starting pitchers are showing signs of progress. After a slow ramp up to full speed, intentionally done by Joe Maddon given the post-season run of 2008 (oh, the good old days), the Rays starting pitchers have not quite been themselves over their first few starts (you might equate these to what would normally be their last few starts of a normal spring training period).

• Shields looked a little rough in his first start against the Red Sox, came out smoking in his second start giving up only 3 hits in 7 innings, and then gave up 5 runs in his third start. Shields was anything if consistent in 2008. In his 4th start, Shields appeared to have very good control of his pitches, seems to have his velocity back up into the 92 MPH range and was mowing hitters down on his way to a 0-1 loss to Seattle.
  
• Kazmir has actually been pretty good with a few rough innings here and there (remember the 10 straight balls to begin the White Sox on 4/18…ugh). Well, he bounced back with 6 shutout innings against the A’s.
  
• Garza took a little while to get going last year, but his stuff is just plain nasty. I’ve not really seen Garza come around, but I am confident he will.
  
• Sonny has been roughed up pretty good in his first 4 starts. He’s simply not locating his pitches. But, Sonny is a feel pitcher and I’m hopeful that he’ll get the touch back soon.
  
• And, what can we say about Niemann? He has been more than we ever could have hoped for. Despite his record of 2-2, he’s kept the Rays in the game. With the exception of his first, very shaky inning, Niemann has been one of the Rays most consistent starters so far. If he can keep this up, I suspect you will see him in this rotation for a while in 2009.

3) Burrell is starting to hit and he is clearly seeing the ball better. Burrell was brought in to improve the Rays chances against lefties (especially the likes of Jon Lester, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitt). But, he’s also served as very valuable protection for Carlos Pena, who is currently leading the AL in home runs and RBIs. That’s no coincidence. When pitchers had the luxury of working the black on Carlos, he was not as potent. But, if they have to throw strikes to him, he’s going to make them pay. You could make the same argument for Longoria, who is also off to a very hot start. He's got Carl Crawform on one side and Carlos Pena on the other. Well, despite his .238 average, Burrell has an OBP of .364 for the 2009 season, AND, he’s hitting .272 over his last 10 games with an OBP of .429. Those aren’t eye-popping, but they are up significantly from the .100-something he was hitting in the first 10 games (it was so bad, I don't even want to calculate it). In addition, he’s drawn 9 walks in the last 10 games. When hitters are walking, they are hitting. Burrell is starting to come around and is likely about to break out for the Rays (that’s my prediction).

So, what am I worried about? Well, other than being in last place 12.3% into the season, I am most worried about BJ Upton. He’s been in a severe slump and it makes me wonder if his shoulder is just not quite right, yet. Maybe it would serve him well to hit #7, #8 or #9 for a couple of weeks to take some pressure off. After all, Aki and JB have been very strong in April and have both proven they are able to handle the leadoff spot. BJ is the future leadoff guy for this team and he has the potential to be a Ricky Henderson type leadoff guy (unique combination of power and speed). But, he can’t do it until he gets his head right. If BJ is not hitting, that hurts in a big way. In a lot of ways, the leadoff guy sets the tone for each game. Let’s recall BJ’s first game back against the Yankees on 4/13. He walked on 6 pitches to start the game. He then stole second AND third base! He then scored on a hit by Carlos Pena. That set the tone for a game that ended with the Rays a big winner 15-5 (BJ finished 1-3 with 3 walks, 2 SBs and 2 runs scored). BJ ate up 30 pitches in that game! For comparison’s sake, Game 2 of the Yankees series was a different story. BJ struck out swinging in his first at bat and was on his way to an 0-4 game with a hat trick (3 Ks and he only saw 16 pitches in that game). The Rays lost the game 7-2, collected a meager 3 hits and didn’t score until the 7th inning. Now, I am not blaming that loss on BJ since the bullpen was the real culprit that time, but I make the point that an impactful leadoff guy can get a team going early. BJ has the potential to shape each and every game right out of the gate.

Let’s all hope that BJ gets back into the swing of things soon (or just finds ways to get on base). We should all keep an eye on his progress. With some of the other pieces starting to come together, I strongly believe that BJ is the lynch pin that could ignite a nice run by the Rays in 2009.