Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Teixeira who? Milton Bradley Our Poor Man's Tex?


Ok, so this comparison might not quite be fair, but I thought it would be fun to consider. The Rays could never afford to acquire someone like Mark Teixeira as he'll be drawing interest from the Big Market teams that can pay AROD-type money and length. But, could Milton Bradley be the poor man's (aka "Rays") Teixeira? Setting aside the fact that they both are switch hitters and are both right around the same age (28 for Tex vs. 30 for Bradley), what do their 2008 numbers suggest? So, here are the numbers:

2008 (Tex vs. Bradley)
Batting Average: .290 vs. .321 (Bradley)
ABs per Home Run: 17.4 vs. 18.8 (Tex)
ABs per xtra Base Hit: 7.8 vs. 7.5 (Bradley)
ABs per RBI: 4.7 vs. 5.4 (Tex)
OBP: .410 vs. .436 (Bradley)
SLG: .552 vs. .563 (Bradley)

Other Considerations:
Defense: Teixeira is Gold Glove quality and Bradley is probably about average.
Health: Teixeira has been a 150+ games/season guy forever; Bradley has had a mixed history with health issues

Money:
Teixeira is likely to draw a long term deal (8+ years) for $20+ million per year!
Bradley was paid $5.25 million in 2008 and will likely get a raise in 2009+, making $6mm to $8mm per season (9=8.com rough estimate depending on other contract details).

In summary, Bradley is the kind of free agent risk that might just make sense for the Rays to take if he can be had for a reasonable price. He clearly has some pretty significant upside given his performance in 2008 and his ability to fill a big whole for the Rays at DH and/or Right Field while also providing the "big" right handed bat the Rays sorely need (Bradley actually batted .341 vs. lefties last year). The fact that he's a switch hitter is an added bonus giving the Rays a great deal of flexibility in their lineup. The risk is that 2008 was a break out season for Bradley and he may not be able to sustain it. Additionally, he has a bit of a rough history off the field. After having lunch with Milton on Monday at the Winter Meetings, Joe Maddon doesn't seem to be all that concerned about these issues stating that he believed that Bradley had matured. Net net, Bradley could be a very exciting addition to the Rays, but he is definitely not without risk (especially if they sign him for the "long-term" deal that Bradley is said to be seeking.

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