9=8.com's Tampa Bay Rays 2008 ALDS Roster Projections
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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:
Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist
Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine
Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price
Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.
2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).
That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.
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9=8.com ALDS Roster Projection:Fielding/Hitting:
C – Navarro/Hernandez
1B – Pena
2B – Iwamura
3B – Longoria
SS – Bartlett
CF – Upton/Perez
LF – Crawford/Hinske
RF – Gross/Baldelli
DH/Utility – Floyd/Aybar/Zobrist
Pitching:
SP1 – Shields
SP2 – Kazmir
SP3 – Garza
SP4 – Sonnanstine
Bullpen:
Howell
Balfour
Wheeler
Bradford
Miller
Price
Items for Debate:
1) If Carl Crawford is healthy (looking more likely), I believe he would likely take Hinske’s or Perez’s place. Hinske clearly has power and has played a solid left field since Carl was hurt. But, Hinske and Gross will not play at the same time, so perhaps the decision becomes Perez + Hinske or Gross? Gross has been the better player down the stretch, but Hinske has also been very good for the Rays (if only he can break out of this lousy slump he's been in). Perez provides depth at CF and LF and is also a big time weapon the bases. I do get pretty excited when I think about how much speed this lineup has if Crawford is healthy along with BJ, Perez and Bartlett (not as fast, but a great baserunner), but that’s more likely a 2009 scenario as Perez is going to come off of the bench. Given how well Aybar has played and his value as a utility guy, he’s most likely in. Zobrist has been red hot lately and is also likely to make the playoff roster based on his utility and hitting. One other possibility is that Rocco misses the roster (pause for dramatic effect). Rocco has been ice cold lately (hitting .167 in his last 10 games) and brings similar defense in RF to Gross. In fact, Perez and Zobrist have both hit with more power than Rocco this year. Can the Rays count on a sudden improvement from Rocco in October? The fans will hate this, but it could happen. If Rocco is not on the ALDS team, Hinske and Perez make the squad. Lots up in the air here.
2) Pitching/Bullpen – For the ALDS, the Rays will carry 4 starters (Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnansine). I’m not entirely sure if they will carry 6 or 7 pitchers in the bullpen. If they only carry 6, then Miller is probably the other one to fall off. If they go with 7, my roster is above. The most notable omission from my list is Percival. While I am a big Percival fan and have tremendous respect for the guy and what he’s done for this team, he is just not healthy enough to be relied upon in the BP. You could slot him in instead of Miller or Jackson (but, Jackson can be very valuable in the long reliever role), so it’s possible Percy gets a spot. The rest of the BP is not all controversial, in my opinion. Price makes the team as he's been very good since joining the team and he brings a lot of versatility to the BP (long middle guy, 1-2 shut down innings, very good vs. lefties, etc.).
That’s it for now. It looks like CC might just be healthy for the ALDS, which would be a huge lift for the Rays. The fill ins have been great, but Carl brings better defense defense and 1 additional out can make or break a game in the playoffs. His speed on the bases is another huge plus (relative to Hinske or Zobrist) and that makes defenses rush throws and do other unnatural things when he’s at the plate. The risk is that it takes him a few games to get back to normal hitting strength. That was not the case with Longo, so let’s hope Carl has similar success out of the gate.
Labels: Ben Zobrist, Carl Crawford, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Eric Hinske, Fernando Perez, Gabe Gross, Rocco Baldelli, Willy Aybar
posted by Blogging Man at
8:38 AM
8 Comments:
Hinske should be there.
Based on what he's done all season, I think you are right. The reason I raise the question is because he's been in a slump lately. For example, he's only hit .182 over his last 10 games with 0 HRs, 8 SOs and a very sad OBP of about .300. That's a far cry from his numbers earlier in the year when he was always one of the toughest outs in the lineup. I like Hinske and think he'll make the team, but he's a legit one to debate and he will be debated. The other benefit to Hinske is he's more of a vet than Zobrist and Perez.
Zobrist earned his postseason spot.
Hinske is in, he is too valuable on defense(experience). The slump is over. He will rise to the occasion.
When you play these games there are no margin for errors in the field. Offense is nice, but pitching and defense wins championships. That means nothing gets behind you and no throwing mistakes. There are few on this team with as many fielding reps as Hinske.
The Rays will look to win very close games with key pitching and smart defense.
Price is out until Percival goes out with injury, then Price may return. They are interchangeable based on postion. And, it seems that Percival deserves to be on the starting lineup. He'll be in the dugout.
Perez probably doesn't make it either unless Carl is on 15-day DL.
Of course, right when I write about the vulnerability of Hinske and Baldelli, what do they do? Hinske goes 2 for 4 with a HR and 3 RBIs. Similarly, Rocco goes and hits a HR (he also struck out 3 times). But, I think it's legit to question Rocco at this point. I love the guy, but he is clearly in a slump and it's not clear if/when he'll break out of it. Breaking out of a slump can't be easy in the playoffs for a newbie (this is obviously Rocco's first playoff appearance). At this point, I would rather have Zobrist on the Roster than Rocco (sorry, feel good stories don't count for much in the post season). Unless there is something I don't know with Rocco....
As for Percy, I just don't think he "is right" as Joe puts it. Price is way too valuable out of the pen to not put on this roster. He can step in at any time and deliver 1-3 shut down innings. The proof of this is a little thin, I know, but he's been really good since coming up and he's clearly healthy. The fact that he can go 80+ pitches is also huge if a starter gets knocked out early. I will be very surprised if Price does not make the ALDS roster (BTW - I don't think Price and Percy are mutually exclusive - they could both be on the roster).
The bubble is clouded with the letter "P"...Percival, Price, and Perez (excluding Pena).
With the Rays history against left-handed pitching, Baldelli is safe.
Left-handed relievers are a different story. The defense will support whoever is on our mound.
P-P-P, pick one?
I think Percival is the lgical choice since it comes with future options. Price and Perez become the optionees.
Not a bad point on Rocco (and, per my comments, there's only an outside chance he does not make the roster). I think Price has to be on the roster over even Trever Miller. Miller is more experienced, but here's why I think this should be seriously considered:
Miller - 4.15 ERA (1.78 ERA vs. Lefties and 7.50 ERA vs. Righties!). Pitched 43 innings and given up 20 earned runs.
Price - 1.93 ERA (1.80 vs. Lefties and 2.00 ERA vs. Righties). Pitched 14 innings with 13 of them ON THE ROAD! 2.03 ERA on the road.
Price is also much more versitile than Miller and can go 1 inning just as easily as he can go 5 innings, if needed. Price has proven he can handle the pressure having pitched extremely well at Yankee Stadium in a game that was VERY important for the Rays. I will be supremely disappointed if Price is not on this playoff roster.
"Hinske is in, he is too valuable on defense(experience). The slump is over. He will rise to the occasion.
When you play these games there are no margin for errors in the field. Offense is nice, but pitching and defense wins championships. That means nothing gets behind you and no throwing mistakes. There are few on this team with as many fielding reps as Hinske. "
Holy S### this is the dumbest thing I've ever read. Hinske is in because of defense? What the #### are you smoking? Just think of that sentence again
"Hinske is in, he is too valuable on defense"
Idiot.
Hinske is there for his bat and (relative) experience. He is also a tough out (lately not so much) who gets to a lot of deep counts. I think Hinske will be on the team, but CC will obviously be the starter in LF for defense. Hinske will likely be played in situations where we need a left handed pinch hitter with some power.
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